BMW's China Slump Deepens Even as JPMorgan Bets on a Stronger Auto Business
Published on 10/13/2026 at 21:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
JPMorgan is standing firm on BMW. Analyst Jose M. Asumendi has reiterated an "Overweight" rating and an 82-euro price target, arguing that a robust automotive business will carry the group through its upcoming quarterly report. The call lands just as BMW's freshly published delivery figures paint a far less flattering picture — a split screen that leaves investors weighing reported weakness against forecast strength.
The stock moved higher on the day, though the two sources put the gain at different levels: one reports a 2.8% advance, the other 2.4%. Either way, the rise sits alongside a news flow that carries both headwinds and optimism, and no single cause can be pinned to the move. A confirmation of Asumendi's projections it is not.
Deliveries and earnings are not the same thing
At the heart of the JPMorgan thesis is a distinction that matters for anyone holding the stock: vehicle deliveries measure volume sold, not profitability. Asumendi is projecting revenue of 29.7 billion euros and an operating result of roughly 1.68 billion euros for the reporting quarter. Both figures are analyst estimates — not figures BMW has already disclosed. His view therefore serves as an optimistic counterweight to the weak volume trend, but it remains a forecast that must be validated by the actual numbers.
BMW Group's global deliveries fell 6.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, to 551,072 vehicles. The company notes the figures are preliminary. That is the softer volume backdrop against which JPMorgan nonetheless expects a strong automotive performance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
A region-by-region story of two directions
The worldwide total only tells part of the story. Growth in Europe and the United States was not enough to offset a sharp contraction in China, and that regional split is central to how the group should be assessed. Chinese deliveries dropped 24.8%, to 114,355 vehicles — a decline the dpa attributes to a price war and a shrinking Chinese market that is weighing on German manufacturers. Europe, by contrast, posted a gain of 2.7%, while the US added 2.5%.
The takeaway: BMW is still expanding outside China, but not enough to prevent a group-wide decline. For interpreting the earnings forecast, that separation matters — stabilizing volumes in individual regions does not amount to a recovery for the company as a whole.
Electric vehicles provide the bright spot
The divergence is even starker when broken down by powertrain. While total deliveries slipped, BMW sold more fully electric vehicles worldwide, with global BEV deliveries climbing 7.2% to 110,257 units. In Europe, electric deliveries jumped 37.5%.
BMW also points to strong order intake for fully electric models and demand for the Neue Klasse, including the iX3 — more than 100,000 orders for the iX3 were placed in Europe within a year. That underpins the demand outlook, though it does not substitute for proof of earnings contribution. Orders and deliveries, after all, are not the same thing.
BMW at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
November 4 is the real test
Media reports suggest BMW is targeting an operating margin of 1–3% in its automotive business for 2026. The quarterly figures are scheduled for release on November 4, 2026.
That report will show whether the auto business delivers the strength JPMorgan anticipates. For investors, the yardstick sits squarely on earnings and margin: the positive recommendation gains weight only if BMW backs it up with solid business results — despite falling vehicle volumes. Until then, hard delivery data stand opposite an upbeat profit forecast, and that gap is what will define how the BMW share is judged.
Ad
BMW Stock: New Analysis - 13 October
Fresh BMW information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
