BMW's Half-Year Scorecard Arrives as Two Banks Bet the Worst Is Over
Published on 07/29/2026 at 18:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Munich automaker faces a critical inflection point on Thursday morning. When BMW releases its half-year results at 7:30 AM CET on July 30, investors will be looking for confirmation that the worst of the China-driven downturn is behind them — or bracing for fresh disappointments.
The stock has already endured a brutal 2026, shedding roughly 35.5 percent of its value since January. Yet in the days leading up to the earnings release, two major financial institutions have stepped forward with bullish calls, arguing the selloff has gone too far.
A Split Screen: Bullish Calls Meet Bleak Fundamentals
HSBC delivered the most dramatic shift, upgrading BMW from "Hold" to "Buy" with a price target of €71.00. The British bank's logic is straightforward: the collapse in Chinese demand and the margin squeeze are now fully reflected in the share price. The stock's 35.8 percent year-to-date decline, HSBC argues, has already priced in the bad news.
Deutsche Bank goes even further, maintaining its "Buy" rating with a €90.00 target — though it cautions that second-quarter operating results will likely be weak. Both institutions are effectively betting on the recovery story, not on the numbers that arrive Thursday morning.
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The shares responded positively to the HSBC upgrade, jumping 4.06 percent on Tuesday to close at €59.98. By Wednesday, the stock had edged up another 0.5 percent to €60.28.
The China Problem in Numbers
The scale of BMW's China headache is hard to overstate. First-half deliveries in the critical market plunged 20.4 percent, and the second quarter alone saw a roughly 30 percent decline. That single market is dragging down the entire group's global performance.
Europe, by contrast, is providing a partial offset. BMW's EU sales rose 4.3 percent, outpacing Mercedes-Benz's 3.5 percent gain. The US market added 3.0 percent growth. But even with those gains, global deliveries fell 4.2 percent in the first half.
The bright spot is electric vehicles. Battery-electric vehicle sales climbed 5.2 percent in the second quarter to 116,807 units, with Europe leading the charge.
What Thursday's Report Must Deliver
Investors will be scrutinizing two key metrics when the half-year numbers land. The first is free cash flow in the automotive segment, which analysts expect to exceed €2.5 billion despite the downturn. The second is management's outlook for the second half — specifically whether BMW signals that the trough in China has been reached.
The margin picture is already grim. BMW warned in June that its automotive EBIT margin would land in a corridor of just 1 to 3 percent. Thursday's report will show whether the company can hold that range or whether further pressure is building.
A Recall That Didn't Rattle the Market
BMW is also managing a significant quality issue. The company has initiated a global recall of 744,234 vehicles, including 3 Series, 5 Series, and X5 models, due to a potential fire risk from defective starter relays. Traders interpreted the stock's resilience in the face of that news as a sign that the market had already priced in the necessary provisions.
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The Neue Klasse Gambit
Under CEO Milan Nedeljkovi?, who took the helm in May, BMW is pushing ahead with a dual strategy of cost cutting and product renewal. An efficiency program targeting administrative roles is expected to save roughly €1 billion annually starting in 2028.
The flagship of the turnaround is the "Neue Klasse" electric platform, which debuts with the iX3. BMW is pulling out all the marketing stops: the new electric SUV will play a central role in the upcoming "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" film, premiering July 31. According to company sources, nearly 100,000 pre-orders for the iX3 are already in the books — a figure that offers a glimmer of hope for the 2027-2028 recovery timeline.
What the Charts Say
Technically, the stock remains deeply wounded. At current levels, BMW trades roughly 24.9 percent below its 200-day moving average of €79.84. The Relative Strength Index sits at a neutral 49.4 to 50.9, depending on the calculation, suggesting the oversold condition has eased but no clear directional momentum has emerged.
Thursday's report will determine whether the recent stabilization has legs. If BMW holds its reduced profit guidance and signals confidence in the second half, HSBC's contrarian bet may prove well-timed. If fresh headwinds emerge — whether from China, cash flow, or the recall — the recovery could stall as quickly as it began.
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BMW Stock: New Analysis - 29 July
Fresh BMW information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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