BMW's September Reckoning: Nedeljkovi? Takes the Stage as Margins Crumble and China Weighs Heavy
Published on 09/11/2026 at 12:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Milan Nedeljkovi? will step in front of investors for the first time as BMW's chief executive on September 30, a capital markets day that now doubles as a verdict on whether the Munich carmaker can chart a credible path out of its deepest slump in years.
The stock changed hands at EUR 62.56 on Friday, down 0.7% on the day. Since January it has shed 33%, and compared with the same period a year ago the decline runs to 26%. The shares sit 36% below their December 52-week high of EUR 97.90, though they remain 11% above the July low of EUR 56.40.
For long-term holders the picture is starker still: EUR 10,000 invested a decade ago would now be worth just EUR 7,610.
Profitability, Not Just Volume, Is the Problem
The real damage lies beneath fluctuating delivery figures. In the first half of 2026, BMW's automotive margin stood at just 3.6% — a far cry from the double-digit levels above 10% the company once commanded. China, long the group's most important growth engine, has turned into a drag, with sales there tumbling by as much as 28% over the same period.
Chinese manufacturers are also pressing into Europe at an accelerating pace. Their share of European new registrations climbed to 8.7% between January and July 2026, up from a mere 0.6% in 2021. In Germany itself, Chinese brands now account for 4.1% of the market, compared with 2.3% a year earlier.
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A Profit Warning That Reset Expectations
Those pressures forced BMW's hand in June, when the board slashed its guidance for 2026. The automotive segment's EBIT margin is now projected at just 1% to 3%, down from a previous target of 4% to 6%. Return on capital employed in the same division was cut from 6% to 10% down to 1% to 5%.
BMW blamed a sales slowdown in China that gathered pace in the second quarter — particularly for vehicles without electric powertrains — alongside one-off charges tied to efficiency measures.
The first quarter had already set the tone. Automotive revenue fell 7.0% to EUR 27.159 billion, while group net profit plunged 23.1% to EUR 1.672 billion. The pre-tax EBIT margin of 7.6% narrowly missed the 8% to 10% corridor targeted at the time.
8,000 Jobs to Go as Costs Meet a Weaker Reality
Responding to the deteriorating operating performance, BMW unveiled a voluntary redundancy programme in late July, according to a Handelsblatt report. Roughly 8,000 positions worldwide are to be cut between October and the end of 2027, concentrated in administration and development. The company has ruled out compulsory layoffs and reductions in production. From 2028, BMW expects annual savings of about EUR 1 billion.
The scale of the job cuts amounts to an admission that the cost base no longer fits a weaker earnings profile.
Boardroom Reshuffle Adds to the Sense of Transition
Alongside the operational crisis, BMW is reshaping its top ranks. In early September the group appointed Dorothea von Boxberg — currently CEO of Brussels Airlines and previously a senior figure at Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Lufthansa Cargo AG — to the management board as labour director. She succeeds Ilka Horstmeier, who is stepping down from the HR role.
A signal from within the board came back in May, when Nedeljkovi? bought shares worth more than EUR 397,000 at roughly EUR 76 apiece — a level well above where the stock trades today.
Analysts Split on Whether the Worst Is Priced In
Reactions to June's profit warning were mixed. DZ Bank trimmed its price target from EUR 94 to EUR 75 while keeping a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a EUR 107 target, and UBS stayed neutral with a EUR 88 target. Those calls date from June and no longer reflect current conditions.
More timely is Citigroup's move in late August, when it opened a 90-day "Positive Catalyst Watch" running through to the capital markets day. The bank noted that the stock was trading around EUR 10 below its net asset value per share and that market expectations had hit a trough — leaving room for a positive surprise should the new CEO deliver convincing answers on September 30.
Deutsche Bank, for its part, reiterated its Buy rating in early September with a EUR 90 target, pointing to meaningful upside from current levels. RBC took a more cautious line in mid-August, rating the stock "Sector Perform" with a EUR 60 target — roughly in line with the prevailing price and offering no clear buying case.
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That spread captures the underlying uncertainty: has the selloff gone too far, or does the weak operating picture justify further discounts?
Macro Headwinds and a Tentative Chart Signal
The broader market offered little support. On Thursday, auto stocks in the DAX came under pressure after the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% — its second hike of the year. ECB President Lagarde called the move a "no-brainer." Higher rates make car loans and leasing more expensive, potentially weighing further on demand for new vehicles. The DAX closed Thursday down 0.84%.
Sentiment toward the sector as a whole remains strained. On the BILD finance talk show "Money Mittwoch," Philipp Dobbert, chief economist at Quirin Bank, described buying into auto stocks right now as "very speculative" — a view that looks reasonable given the margin erosion at BMW.
Yet the chart offers a glimmer of stabilisation. Thursday's closing price of EUR 63.00 sat roughly 5.7% above the 50-day moving average, hinting at a short-term recovery move.
Whether that develops into anything more depends largely on whether the automotive margin stabilises in the coming quarters — and whether the job cuts take hold before Chinese competitive pressure intensifies further.
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