Bond-Market Jolt Hits SanDisk Even as $93.9 Billion Backlog Anchors the Long-Term Story
Published on 08/18/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The memory-chip maker's shares took a sharp hit on Tuesday as a surge in long-dated US Treasury yields triggered profit-taking across the semiconductor complex, momentarily overshadowing a contract pipeline that has fundamentally reshaped the company's growth trajectory.
SanDisk traded at €1,410.00, down 9.0% on the day, after the yield on the 30-year US Treasury climbed to roughly 5.33% — its highest level in nearly two decades. The move weighed on high-multiple technology names across the board, with peers Micron and Western Digital also sliding. Market participants pointed to the expiry of a US-Iran ceasefire as an additional source of jitters, with firmer oil prices reigniting inflation concerns and adding to the pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks.
The pullback, however, comes against a backdrop of extraordinary operational momentum. CFO Luis Visoso laid out the details on August 13 of a record backlog totaling $93.9 billion, of which approximately $91.1 billion represents unearned revenue backed by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. The company has locked in capacity commitments with eight major data-center operators, including three US hyperscalers, under long-term NBM agreements that cover more than 50% of planned bit production for fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds for 2028.
That visibility marks a sea change for a business that once operated on a three-month planning horizon. Management now cites visibility extending beyond four years, a shift driven by what Macquarie analysts describe as the most severe memory shortage in history, expected to persist over the next three years. The company's partnership with Kioxia remains integral to this strategy, with SanDisk set to pay $1.2 billion for manufacturing services between 2026 and 2029.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SANDISK?
The numbers underscore the scale of the inflection. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year, with the data-center segment alone surging 1,298%. Earnings per share for the period reached $43.97. For the current first quarter of fiscal 2027, management guides for revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, alongside a gross margin in the 83% to 85% range. Longer term, the company targets an adjusted gross margin of roughly 80% and an operating margin of about 75% by the 2028–2030 window. A $15.5 billion share repurchase program has also been authorized.
Wall Street remains broadly constructive despite Tuesday's turbulence. JPMorgan has resumed coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a $2,250 price target, with analyst Harlan Sur emphasizing NAND's strategic role in AI inference workloads. The bank sees roughly 37% upside from recent closing levels. Elsewhere, Citi sits at $2,100, Evercore ISI reaches as high as $2,800, and Bernstein tops the range at $3,000. New Street Research and Wedbush have also voiced positive views in recent sessions.
The stock's trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable. Even after Tuesday's setback, shares remain more than 600% higher on a year-to-date basis and trade about 71% above their 52-week low of €870.00. The current price sits roughly 32% below the 52-week high of €2,060.00, a gap that reflects both the ferocity of the recent rally and the market's sensitivity to macro headwinds.
The demand drivers, at least, appear structural rather than cyclical. The surging revenue trajectories of AI model developers such as Anthropic and OpenAI point to sustained appetite for storage capacity, supporting expectations of durably higher memory-chip pricing. For SanDisk, the combination of contracted revenue, expanding margins, and AI-fueled demand presents a fundamentally different earnings profile than the boom-bust cycles that have historically defined the sector — even if Tuesday's bond-market jolt serves as a reminder that valuation still matters.
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