BYD's Export Boom Can't Mask a 21% Slide as JPMorgan Retreats
Published on 10/07/2026 at 14:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BYD is leaning hard on its overseas order book to offset a softening Chinese home market, and the strategy is producing a sharply split picture for investors. The automaker's September exports of passenger cars and pickups climbed 153.9% year on year to 179,877 units, according to Reuters, while total deliveries of new-energy vehicles for the month reached 463,561.
That export momentum is increasingly the load-bearing wall of the business. Yet it has not been enough to lift the stock, which has shed 21% since the start of the year. In pre-market trading the shares changed hands at EUR 8.47, down 0.4% from the prior session, and the equity sits 31% below its 52-week high.
A Quarter of Growth, a Year of Decline
The headline numbers tell two different stories depending on the window. For the third quarter, BYD reported vehicle sales of 1,323,065 units in its Hong Kong exchange filings — an 18.7% jump over the same period a year earlier. The summer surge helped the company push back against a domestic market where rivals are competing on aggressive discounts.
Zoom out, though, and the picture darkens. Across the first nine months of 2025, total volume came to 3,131,576 vehicles, a decline of 3.94% from the prior-year period. The gap between the quarterly gain and the nine-month shortfall reflects a decisive shift in where BYD is selling: international demand is expanding fast, while Chinese buyers have pulled back.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
September laid that divergence bare. As exports surged by more than 150%, sales inside China contracted 13.0% during the same month.
JPMorgan Trims Its Bet
The strain in the core business prompted JPMorgan to take a more cautious line. On 29 September, the US bank downgraded BYD from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and cut its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124.
The analysts pointed to an expected cooling of China's auto sector and weak domestic demand, alongside rising procurement costs, regulatory uncertainty and looming trade barriers in overseas markets. Tariff and non-tariff hurdles, they warned, could make global expansion harder going forward.
New Metal for the Home Front
To counter the domestic slowdown, BYD is preparing fresh product. The company is set to launch its new electric sedan, the Da Han, in China on 13 October, according to media reports. The car is slated to carry a drag coefficient of 0.197 Cd and, in its longest-range configuration, deliver up to 1,008 kilometers on the Chinese CLTC standard. The rollout is aimed squarely at rebuilding momentum in a market where BYD has lost some of its earlier pace.
Beyond autos, the group is also advancing its stationary storage technology. A published patent application describes an energy storage housing in which battery cells are immersed directly in a dielectric coolant, with the control electronics housed separately in a dry compartment, according to media reports.
For now, caution over domestic sales risks is dictating the mood on the trading floor — and the market is waiting to see whether the export engine and a wave of new models can carry the load.
Ad
BYD Stock: New Analysis - 7 October
Fresh BYD information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
