BYD's Export Boom Meets a Wall of Caution as JPMorgan Slashes Its Target
Published on 10/02/2026 at 15:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BYD shares came under pressure on Friday, sliding 2.3% to EUR 8.40 as a broad sell-off in Hong Kong rippled through the Chinese auto sector. The Hang Seng Index shed 2.6% by midday, weighed down by climbing US Treasury yields and firmer oil prices that sapped investors' appetite for risk. The decline extended a softer stretch for the stock, which had closed the prior session at EUR 8.60.
The retreat came without a single company-specific trigger, though the mood surrounding China's electric-vehicle makers has grown noticeably more guarded. That wariness was reinforced earlier in the week when JPMorgan downgraded BYD from "Overweight" to "Neutral," trimming its price target sharply from 124 Hong Kong dollars to 88 Hong Kong dollars. The US bank pointed to weakening domestic demand in China, rising procurement costs, and political uncertainties and tariffs that could slow Chinese manufacturers' overseas expansion.
A Tale of Two Markets
The operational picture is a study in contrasts. BYD reported September deliveries of 463,561 new-energy vehicles, a gain of 16.98% from a year earlier. The headline number, however, masks a widening split between the company's two engines.
Overseas sales are doing the heavy lifting. Exports of passenger cars and pickups surged 153.9% to 179,877 units, according to Reuters, cushioning the impact of a sluggish home market. Domestic sales told the opposite story, falling by nearly 13% in September. Over the first nine months of the year, total deliveries slipped 3.94% compared with the same period in 2024.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
A bruising price war and cautious Chinese consumers continue to squeeze manufacturers at home, with high-margin segments such as plug-in hybrids feeling the pinch. The central question for investors is how long the export surge can offset the drag from China.
Washington and Beijing Add to the Fog
Politics is proving no less complicated than the marketplace. On Wednesday, the US Senate postponed deliberations on a bill that would ban connected vehicles with ties to China—a measure aimed, according to the Associated Press, at shutting Chinese manufacturers out of the American market. Reuters reported that BYD executives were under consideration to join a planned US trip by President Xi Jinping, though the outlet did not confirm the arrangement.
A Recall and a Milestone
Closer to home, regulators ordered BYD on September 18 to recall 183,211 vehicles from its Qin and Tang lines over a defective brake-pedal stop buffer. The company will carry out the fix at no cost to owners. The affected vehicles are of older model years.
Even as those headaches mount, BYD is pressing ahead with infrastructure. In September, the automaker brought its 2,000th fast-charging station along Chinese highways into service, reaching the milestone well ahead of its original target of year-end.
With export momentum running hot against a cooling domestic market, a downgrade from Wall Street, and regulatory and political crosscurrents on both sides of the Pacific, BYD faces a demanding stretch ahead.
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