BYD's Interim Report Looms as Record Exports Face Off Against a Margin Squeeze at Home
Published on 08/25/2026 at 08:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers arriving out of Shenzhen this week tell two starkly different stories. On Thursday, BYD releases its second-quarter figures, followed by the full half-year report on Friday — and the gap between those narratives will determine whether the stock's recent sideways drift turns into a genuine recovery or a longer wait for better days.
July offered the bulls their strongest evidence yet. The company moved 419,211 vehicles, a record for a single month and up 21.8 percent year on year. The standout figure sits in the export column: overseas deliveries jumped 124.3 percent to 179,841 units, pushing the international share of total sales to 43 percent for the first time. Domestic sales still fell, but the 9 percent decline marked a notable easing from earlier in the year.
That momentum stands in sharp contrast to the first quarter, when net profit collapsed 55 percent to 4.08 billion yuan and revenue slipped 12 percent to 150.2 billion yuan, casualties of the price war that Xiaomi, Geely and others have waged in China's crowded EV market. The 2025 full-year result had already set a cautious tone, with net income down 19 percent.
A Product Offensive That Refuses to Slow
While the profit picture has darkened, the model pipeline has kept flowing. At the Chengdu Auto Show, BYD opened orders for the "Great Han" flagship sedan, equipped with a 102-kWh battery, a CLTC range of 1,008 kilometers and fast-charging technology that promises a 10-to-70 percent top-up in five minutes. The entry price: 249,900 yuan. The Ocean network's sales chief, Zhang Zhuo, also teased a new compact model, the "Great Seagull," slotted between the existing Seagull and Dolphin.
The show also featured the third-generation Tang and the Da Han, both showcasing the company's fast-charging capabilities, with ranges of up to 1,008 and 850 kilometers respectively. Across other markets, the Ti-7 made its debut at the British Motor Show, while the compact kei-car Racco has already racked up more than 1,000 orders in Japan within weeks of launch.
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Europe remains a bright spot: 2025 sales grew 270 percent to 188,000 vehicles, and registrations through May 2026 were running 144 percent higher at over 100,000 units.
The Margin Question That Won't Go Away
For investors, the core issue is whether overseas growth can offset the damage being done at home. The July data suggests a shift in the sales mix, but whether that has translated into healthier margins in the second quarter remains the open question heading into Thursday's release.
The bear case rests on the structural nature of the domestic price war. A first-quarter profit decline of more than half is not a blip; it points to a competitive environment that shows no signs of easing. There are also warning signals in the institutional flows: regulatory filings show investors trimming BYD-related EV positions, while UBS increased its stake in rival Nio by 56.1 percent during the second quarter. That capital rotation within the Chinese EV sector may hint at shifting sentiment, even if it doesn't directly forecast BYD's trajectory.
The company's own sales target adds another layer of pressure. The 2026 goal of 5.0 to 5.5 million vehicles now looks increasingly out of reach, requiring average monthly sales of roughly 530,000 units over the remaining months — well above even July's record pace.
Infrastructure Bottlenecks Abroad
The export boom carries its own vulnerabilities. A 43 percent overseas share means greater exposure to tariffs, logistics and local production capacity — and that's where the friction shows. The Szeged plant in Hungary has slipped from its original late-2025 timeline to the fourth quarter of 2026, with equipment installation still underway. The $1 billion Turkey project sits idle without a schedule.
If domestic margins keep shrinking while overseas manufacturing capacity stalls, the combination could hit the income statement from both directions. There's also the question of whether July's record was a genuine inflection point or a one-off surge ahead of model refreshes.
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Where the Stock Stands
The shares closed at 9.99 euros yesterday, down 1.4 percent, roughly 25 percent below the 52-week high of 13.23 euros. The stock trades about 4.4 percent above its 50-day moving average of 9.57 euros, while the 200-day average sits at 10.46 euros — a range that captures the market's indecision.
A separate data point adds a different dimension: BYD secured an EPC contract worth 2.991 billion yuan for the "Aegean Shopping Mall and High-End Residential Project," signaling continued diversification beyond the core automotive business. In Bangladesh, distributor Runner Automobiles PLC has approved a technical licensing agreement and master supply-and-manufacturing contract with BYD, another step in building out non-China sales channels.
The immediate test arrives in two stages: the second-quarter numbers tomorrow, then the board's approval and release of the full interim report on Friday. If those documents show export gains cushioning the domestic margin damage, the stock's range-bound pattern may resolve to the upside. If the price war at home continues to eat the overseas profits, the distance to that 52-week high will likely grow rather than shrink.
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