BYD's July Sales Tell a Tale of Two Markets — And the Math on 2025 Is Getting Steeper
Published on 08/04/2026 at 15:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers keep climbing, but the story behind them is growing more complicated. BYD moved 419,211 vehicles in July, a 21.8 percent jump year-on-year and the third consecutive month of rising sales. Yet the headline figure masks a widening split between a booming overseas operation and a home market still mired in a brutal price war.
The export channel is where the momentum now lives. Overseas shipments surged 124.3 percent to 179,841 units, pushing the international share of total sales to 42.9 percent — the first time exports have crossed the 40 percent threshold. For the year to date, BYD has shipped roughly 969,000 vehicles abroad out of a cumulative 2.228 million units sold.
That cumulative tally, however, still sits 10.54 percent below the same period last year. The weak opening months of 2025 continue to weigh on the annual picture, even as the recent trend line has turned decisively upward.
Home turf remains the weak link
Domestic sales reached about 239,370 vehicles in July, a modest 3 percent gain from June. The lackluster performance reflects an intensifying price war that has knocked roughly 8 percent off BYD's average selling price since the start of the year. Citi analysts have responded by trimming their forecast for BYD's China sales from 3.1 million to 2.8 million vehicles.
The broader Chinese market tells a similar story. Industry-wide sales contracted 4.1 percent in the first half to around 15 million vehicles, with domestic demand down 21.1 percent even as national exports jumped 65.3 percent. Rivals are riding the same wave: Geely lifted July sales to 250,161 units with exports up 202 percent, while Chery sold 276,820 vehicles with an export share of 73.2 percent. Among EV peers, the month was less forgiving — Xpeng fell 5.2 percent, Nio dropped 11.5 percent and Li Auto slipped 1.4 percent versus June.
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The arithmetic on the annual target
BYD's full-year goal of 5 to 5.5 million vehicles now requires a formidable second-half push. The company would need to average roughly 530,000 units per month through December — a figure well above July's record. Citi's caution extends beyond the domestic price war to include tariff risks in the EU and South America.
Europe, at least, offers a bright spot. Chinese EV brands captured a 10.7 percent market share across 18 Western European countries in the second quarter, up from 5.7 percent a year earlier. BYD alone held 2.8 percent of that market with 91,500 vehicles sold, edging past Tesla's 2.6 percent.
New models, new markets, new sidelines
The product offensive continues in parallel. Fangchengbao, BYD's sub-brand, teased its flagship Tai 9 SUV on Tuesday — a boxy, three-row offering (five, six or seven seats) riding on the sixth-generation DM-i hybrid system with all-wheel drive and rear-axle steering. BYD claims a range exceeding 2,300 kilometers, with Cloud-P Ultra air suspension included. Launch is slated for the second half of the year.
Japan saw the RACCO minicar debut in late July, drawing around 100 orders in its first three days. The pipeline also includes the Tang, Seal 08 and Denza Z9S. And in a sideline move, BYD opened its first robot showroom in Shenzhen over the weekend, featuring models like Worker-B, Service-D and Spark, with five more locations planned by year-end — still a footnote for revenue, but a signal of diversification beyond autos.
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What the market is pricing
Investors are clearly weighing the export boom against persistent domestic weakness. The stock slipped 2.3 percent in Shenzhen on the day of the sales release, and in European trading the shares were down 0.94 percent on Tuesday at €10.35. The monthly picture is friendlier — a 10.06 percent gain — but the shares remain nearly 22 percent below their 52-week high of €13.23 from late August last year. Market capitalization stands at roughly €95.11 billion.
On the Hong Kong listing, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2, against a sector average of 29.7 and a broader automotive industry multiple of 13.2. One valuation model pegs fair value at 14.8, suggesting the equity is priced for continued operational strength. Whether BYD can sustain the export surge fast enough to offset the domestic drag — and close the gap to that 530,000-unit monthly run-rate — remains the central question for the second half.
