BYD's Record October Masks a Widening Split: EVs Surge, Hybrids Retreat, and Analysts Can't Agree on What It's Worth
Published on 11/01/2026 at 16:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BYD closed October with its strongest sales month of the year, but the headline figure of 490,168 new-energy vehicles sold tells only part of the story. Beneath the 10.97% year-on-year gain — and a 5.74% sequential rise that marked the sixth consecutive month of annual growth — the Chinese automaker's lineup is pulling in two directions at once.
Battery-electric passenger cars hit 305,743 units, up 37.38% from a year earlier and the third straight monthly record. Plug-in hybrids, by contrast, slid 17.23%. The divergence means the group's overall momentum rests almost entirely on its pure-electric range, with hybrid weakness offset at the consolidated level rather than cured.
Geography reinforces the imbalance. Domestic sales came in at 319,974 vehicles, down 10.57% year on year, as soft demand and fierce price competition weighed on the home market, according to Reuters. Exports told the opposite story: 170,194 units shipped abroad, a jump of 102.84%. That overseas surge has become the main counterweight to China's slowdown — though Reuters also flags the possibility of fresh EU restrictions on BYD hybrid imports under a China-EU trade arrangement, a risk rather than a confirmed hit.
For the year to date, the picture is still one of repair rather than recovery. Cumulative January-to-October volume reached 3,621,744 new-energy vehicles, 2.16% below the same period a year earlier. October's strength has not yet erased that deficit.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
A Profit Beat That Wasn't
The sales release landed a day after BYD's third-quarter report, which showed net profit up 28.08% year on year to RMB 10.02 billion. Solid growth on paper — but not enough to clear expectations. Broker estimates compiled by Reuters had ranged from RMB 11.4 billion to RMB 12.95 billion, leaving even the low end out of reach. Reuters also pointed to margin pressure from the intense domestic competitive battle.
Currency effects added a further drag. Morgan Stanley noted foreign-exchange losses exceeding RMB 2 billion in the third quarter of 2026. Even so, the bank reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating on the H-shares on Friday, keeping a target price of HK$114 and emphasizing the profitability of the overseas business and the company's ability to convert operations into earnings.
JPMorgan took the other side of the argument. On Tuesday it cut its rating on the A-shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight," citing stagnant domestic demand, higher component costs and lower value-added-tax rebates on exports, with possible EU import quotas for plug-in hybrids adding to the list. Its A-share target dropped from RMB 88 to RMB 65. The H-shares stayed at "Neutral," but their target was trimmed from HK$88 to HK$60.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Question Behind the Numbers
The two calls frame the debate neatly. One camp looks past the currency hit and focuses on overseas margins; the other stresses demand, cost and trade headwinds. What both agree on, implicitly, is that rising quarterly profit alone no longer settles the case. The real test is how durable those earnings prove against domestic competition — and how much profitable contribution the export engine can deliver. That is where the analyst consensus breaks down.
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