BYD's Safety Credentials and Paris Debut Can't Mask a 22% Slide and Shrinking Export Margins
Published on 10/18/2026 at 17:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BYD has collected a five-star rating from Euro NCAP for its SHARK pickup, a result the company announced on Friday and one that rests on a 2025 assessment by the Australasian body ANCAP, rounded out with supplementary Euro NCAP testing. The scorecard lands as a useful marketing asset for the manufacturer's commercial-vehicle line — and as something of a bright spot in a week otherwise dominated by margin pressure and a share price hugging its lows.
The stock closed Friday at EUR 8.34 in German trading, a mere 3.9% above its 52-week trough of EUR 8.03. Since the start of the year the equity has shed 22%.
A packed product calendar, from Paris to Huai'an
On the passenger-car side, BYD used the Paris motor show to unveil the ATTO 8, a seven-seat SUV fitted with a second-generation 115-kilowatt-hour battery and a WLTP combined range of up to 653 kilometres. The model is earmarked for a European launch in the first quarter of 2027, pushing the group deeper into the continent's large-family segment.
The commercial-vehicle division had its own milestone to report: on 10 October, an electric Q3 tractor unit became the 150,000th commercial vehicle to roll off the line at the Huai'an plant. Management used the occasion to reaffirm plans to step up investment in heavy long-haul trucks.
At home, BYD installed 18.29 gigawatt-hours of EV batteries in China during September, good for a 21.09% market share and second place behind CATL. The gap to the front-runner narrowed for a fourth consecutive month.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
September volumes and the arithmetic behind the annual target
September 2026 brought sales of 463,561 new-energy vehicles, 180,700 of them exported. BYD flagged that the monthly production and sales figures are unaudited and may still be revised.
The nine-month trajectory nonetheless fell short of some expectations. UOB Kay Hian cut its passenger-car sales forecasts for 2026 through 2028 on 9 October, calculating that hitting BYD's internal target of five million vehicles for 2026 would require average monthly sales of 622,800 units in the fourth quarter — a bar set well above September's run rate.
Tax change and EU cap squeeze the export story
Trade policy is turning less friendly. China's finance ministry and the state tax administration announced roughly a week ago that the VAT rebate on exports of new-energy vehicles will drop from 13% to 9% with effect from 1 April 2027 — a change liable to raise costs for Chinese automakers shipping abroad. Brussels, for its part, has confirmed an annual ceiling of 350,000 China-built hybrid vehicles, capping volumes for several manufacturers.
Geopolitics is shaping market selection too. Executive Vice President Stella Li told the Milken Institute Asia Summit that BYD has no plans at present to enter the United States with passenger cars, given geopolitical uncertainty. The sales push stays focused on other overseas markets and Europe.
Analysts trim targets, board sets Q3 date
Recent weeks brought downward revisions on the sell side. Bernstein lowered its price target to USD 16.57 from USD 17.33 on 9 October while keeping its Buy rating. Two days earlier, CGS International had trimmed its own target to USD 13.20 from USD 14.53, also retaining a Buy call.
Attention now shifts to 29 October, when the board of directors meets to deliberate on third-quarter results ahead of their publication.
Ad
BYD Stock: New Analysis - 18 October
Fresh BYD information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
