BYD's Two-Speed Engine: Chengdu Showcase Can't Mask the 30.9% Home-Market Slide
Published on 08/24/2026 at 07:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Chengdu Auto Show 2026 opened with a burst of product news from BYD, yet the fanfare around the new models does little to obscure a stark reality: the company's domestic sales are deteriorating at a pace that even its record-breaking export machine is struggling to offset.
Shares of the Chinese electric-vehicle giant gained 2.0 percent on Friday to EUR 10.13, a move that leaves the stock up 2.5 percent on the week and 3.8 percent over the past month. The longer-term picture is less flattering — the equity remains 5.4 percent lower year-to-date and roughly 20 percent below its level twelve months ago. Chart watchers note the shares are trading about 6.0 percent above their 50-day moving average, yet still below the 200-day line and around 23 percent beneath the 52-week high of EUR 13.23 touched in August of last year.
A Model Blitz Aimed at a Stalling Home Market
At the Chengdu event, BYD unveiled the third-generation Tang SUV — an eight-seat flagship for its Dynasty line slated to hit showrooms in the fourth quarter of 2026 — and opened pre-sales for the Da Han sedan, a Dynasty-9 flagship promising a 1,008-kilometre range and fast-charging technology that reportedly tops up in just five minutes. The Da Han comes in three trims priced between 249,900 and 299,900 yuan. The company's Fang Cheng Bao sub-brand also showcased the Tai 9 luxury hybrid SUV and began taking reservations for its first sedan series.
The timing is no coincidence. Industry data shows BYD sold 411,072 vehicles globally in July, up 20.5 percent year-on-year — but retail deliveries inside China collapsed by 30.9 percent to 172,449 units over the same stretch. The domestic picture has been deteriorating all year: the first half saw sales drop 20.2 percent, prompting the Chinese auto industry association to slash its 2026 growth forecast to minus 14 percent back in June.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
That divergence is already visible in the corporate accounts. Revenue rose 3.46 percent to 803.96 billion yuan in 2025, while profit fell 19.63 percent to 32.33 billion yuan — evidence of the margin pressure building at home even as volumes hold up abroad.
Overseas Expansion Accelerates
The export channel is where the momentum lies. April overseas deliveries hit a record, up roughly 70 percent year-on-year, and the international push continues on multiple fronts. In Malaysia — a linchpin of BYD's Southeast Asian strategy — the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Bus Cap to localise electric bus production. Bangladesh's Runner Automobiles PLC approved a technical licensing agreement to import and distribute BYD vehicles, backed by a planned preference share issuance worth 250 crore taka. In Australia, the model lineup has grown to eleven vehicles with the addition of the Sealion 5 and Sealion 8 plug-in hybrids.
Even the Denza brand, BYD's premium arm, is stirring: regulatory filings with China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reveal specifications for the upcoming Denza N8, featuring a 130.15-kWh battery and a CLTC range of 1,003 kilometres.
The Half-Year Reckoning Approaches
Investors won't have long to wait for a clearer read on how these cross-currents net out. BYD's board is scheduled to meet on August 28 to review and approve the half-year results for the six months through June 30, with the full numbers expected shortly after.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analyst opinion remains split on the stock's prospects. Goldman Sachs sees the first quarter's surprisingly strong operating results as evidence the trough has passed, holding a Buy rating with a HK$134 price target. BNP Paribas takes a markedly more cautious view, citing the sharper-than-expected profit decline and assigning an Underperform rating with a fair value of just HK$87. The consensus target sits at HK$124, largely unchanged despite downward revisions to 2026 revenue and earnings estimates. Bernstein trimmed its price target in mid-August, pointing to sector-wide demand weakness in China, while still ranking BYD among its preferred picks in the Chinese EV space.
The August 28 board meeting — and the earnings that follow — will show whether the combination of new models, record exports and expanding international footprint can finally arrest the slide in a home market that remains the company's biggest challenge.
Ad
BYD Stock: New Analysis - 24 August
Fresh BYD information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
