Chip ETF Stages Sharpest Rebound in Months as Equipment Makers and Cloud Giants Rekindle AI Spending Faith
Published on 07/31/2026 at 15:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The whiplash gripping semiconductor markets reached a new extreme on Thursday, with the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF surging 8.54% to close at €88.71. The advance ranks among the fund's strongest sessions in recent memory, yet it only partially repairs the damage from a two-day rout that had erased roughly $1 trillion in market value across the sector.
For investors holding the fund over a 30-day horizon, the bounce still leaves a 14.26% deficit — a stark illustration of how violently chip stocks have swung between euphoria and panic in recent weeks.
From Historic Slide to Historic Single-Day Gain
The turnaround follows one of the most brutal stretches the industry has endured. In the week leading up to July 30, the twenty most valuable semiconductor companies collectively shed around $1.3 trillion in market capitalization. Nvidia absorbed the heaviest blow, losing $238 billion, followed by SK Hynix at $176 billion, Samsung at $173 billion, and TSMC at $119 billion. Micron and AMD each gave up roughly $110 billion.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index captured the scale of the carnage: it plunged 26.7% during July, sliding from 14,246.96 to 10,447.49 points by July 29. Then came the reversal — the index snapped back 8.19% the following day to 11,302.99, its largest daily gain since April 2025.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
That rebound has now extended into the ETF, fueled by a cascade of earnings reports that reassured investors the artificial intelligence spending cycle remains firmly intact.
Lam Research's Record Quarter Sets the Tone
The pivotal catalyst came from Lam Research, the chip-equipment maker that delivered its strongest quarterly performance in decades. The company posted record revenue of $6.72 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter, up 30% year over year, while net income climbed 32% to $2.28 billion. Gross margin hit 52% — the highest level in twenty years. Earnings per share of $1.82 comfortably beat the $1.69 analysts had penciled in.
The market response was electric: shares jumped as much as 20% on the day, marking the stock's biggest single-session gain since 1999. Management also raised its forecast for global wafer-fabrication equipment spending to $150 billion, a signal that chipmakers remain committed to expanding capacity despite the recent market turbulence.
Microsoft's Cloud Numbers Bolster the AI Thesis
Adding to the momentum, Microsoft delivered what the company called its largest single-day market value gain in 18 years. The stock climbed roughly 15%, adding $450 billion to its market capitalization and lifting it to $3.35 trillion. The trigger: Azure revenue crossed the $100 billion annual threshold for the first time, growing 43% — the fastest pace in four years — while the company's backlog swelled 84% to $678 billion. CFO Amy Hood signaled further acceleration in the coming quarter.
Those cloud numbers carried direct implications for the semiconductor complex. If hyperscalers are still spending aggressively on AI infrastructure, demand for memory and logic chips should follow. The read-through was immediate: Micron gained around 18%, SanDisk roughly 26%, AMD about 13%, and Intel approximately 11%. Not every tech heavyweight shared in the rally — Meta slid nearly 8% after issuing a soft outlook.
Memory Shortage Extends the Bull Case
Underpinning the recovery is a structural argument that helped investors frame the earlier selloff as overdone. Samsung Electronics, coming off a quarter in which operating profit nearly twentyfolded, warned that memory chip shortages could persist through 2028 as AI-driven demand continues to outstrip supply. That assessment lends weight to the view that the current investment wave in data centers and AI accelerators is secular rather than merely cyclical — a distinction that matters for how investors value semiconductor stocks through periods of volatility.
The memory supply picture has also been complicated by events on the ground. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Japan's Kumamoto region on July 28, an area hosting critical facilities for TSMC, Sony, Renesas, and Tokyo Electron. TSMC resumed operations at its affected plant quickly, while Renesas said it would phase back in production by August 5. Sony, whose Kumamoto facility holds more than 43% of the global image sensor market, had yet to announce a restart timeline. Historical precedent offers little comfort: after a comparable quake in the region in 2016, full restoration took roughly three and a half months.
Analysts Split on What Comes Next
The recovery has not unified opinion on the sector's trajectory. Susquehanna's Christopher Rolland raised his price target on AMD to $500, maintaining a positive rating on the strength of demand for the Instinct MI-series AI accelerators and EPYC processors — a market he estimates could reach $220 billion by 2030.
CIBC's Sid Mokhtari strikes a more cautious tone. He points to retail investor bullishness collapsing from 45% to 31% and the VIX climbing above 20 as warning signs. With the SMH semiconductor index having broken below $580, he sees the potential for further downside into the $460–$480 range and advises a more defensive posture favoring lower-volatility names.
What's Next for the Fund
The immediate calendar offers little respite. Onsemi reports on August 3, AMD on August 4, and SanDisk on August 5 — any of which could trigger another round of double-digit swings among the ETF's heavyweight holdings. The fund remains roughly 20% below its 52-week high, a reminder that Thursday's bounce, however forceful, has not yet reversed the broader correction. For holders of the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF, the recent pattern has been consistent: sharp drawdowns followed by equally sharp recoveries, as long as the structural demand for AI chips and memory components stays intact.
Ad
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF Stock: New Analysis - 31 July
Fresh VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
