Chip ETF Trades Near €100 as TSMC's Blowout Quarter Meets an OpenAI Revenue Riddle
Published on 10/12/2026 at 16:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two competing forces are pulling at semiconductor investors this week: blockbuster demand for AI hardware, and a fresh round of questions about whether the money pouring into that hardware will ever come back as profit.
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF (ISIN IE00BMC38736) was quoted at €99.56 on Monday, having ended the prior Friday session at €100.70. The fund has slipped 4.9% over the past seven days, yet it remains 87% higher since the start of the year — a gap that captures the tension running through the sector. The ETF is also trading roughly 10% below its 52-week high, even as it holds above its long-term moving averages.
OpenAI's Revenue Math Rattles the Sector
The trigger for last week's selling was a Reuters report on OpenAI's annualized revenue, which came in at just under $50 billion for September — well short of the nearly $70 billion figure the company had previously signaled. The shortfall is attributed mainly to differing accounting methods, particularly how sales through cloud partners are counted.
No actual change to OpenAI's chip orders accompanied the disclosure. Even so, the news acted as a catalyst for profit-taking across the industry. Chip producers shed an average of 3.4% on Thursday, and investors increasingly find themselves asking whether the enormous sums being spent on AI infrastructure will generate the expected returns on a timely basis.
The unease showed up in fund flows as well. Semiconductor ETFs recorded net outflows of $686.7 million on Wednesday, according to media reports. Broader market conditions added to the gloom: rising crude oil prices and persistent tensions in the Middle East fueled worries about accelerating inflation and the possible knock-on effects for interest rate policy. Cuts to US production capacity also weighed on sentiment, Reuters reported.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
TSMC Delivers a Counterweight
Against that nervous backdrop, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company offered a decisive rebuttal. The contract chipmaker posted third-quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, a 50% jump from the same period a year earlier — a result that beat market forecasts, according to Reuters. The driver was unrelenting demand for high-performance chips essential to AI applications.
TSMC occupies a pivotal position in the global supply chain, supplying technology giants including Nvidia and Apple with components for their most advanced products. For semiconductor investors, the company often serves as a barometer for the entire industry, since its order intake offers a window into the future plans of chip designers. The latest figures make clear that demand for computing power remains steady despite macroeconomic uncertainty elsewhere.
ASML and TSMC Both on the Calendar
Attention now shifts to Europe, where ASML Holding N.V. is scheduled to publish its third-quarter results on Wednesday. The Dutch equipment maker supplies the most advanced lithography systems — the technological foundation for producing future generations of chips — and media reports suggest the release is eagerly awaited.
The capital spending plans of major chipmakers feed directly into ASML's order book, making the report a central event for sector sentiment. As manufacturing processes grow more complex, producers' reliance on specialized equipment suppliers like ASML only deepens. Investors are hoping for guidance on next year's demand picture, particularly given the massive global investment in new data centers.
TSMC, meanwhile, will report its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15. The company has guided for revenue between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion. That release, and the management commentary that follows, will be closely watched for evidence that demand for high-performance AI chips remains as robust as the year-to-date performance suggests.
Valuation Meets Fundamentals
The coming days will test whether the strong underlying numbers from the industry's leaders can justify the sector's rich valuations. With the AI trade still functioning as the primary growth engine, market participants are watching to see whether the data from equipment makers and chip designers sustain the momentum — or whether the doubts stirred up by OpenAI's revenue disclosure prove the more durable signal.
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