Deutsche Telekom: BofA's Dollar-Driven Upgrade Meets a SpaceX-Fueled Selloff
Published on 10/26/2026 at 14:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom shareholders are being pulled in two directions at once. On one side sits a freshly raised set of forecasts from BofA Global Research, underpinned by a stronger dollar. On the other, a Reuters report about potential new US wireless competition from SpaceX knocked the stock down 3.7% on Friday, dragging T-Mobile US and its majority owner along with it.
The two forces frame the same question ahead of the group's third-quarter results, scheduled for 5 November 2026: how much of the optimism now baked into analyst models reflects genuine operating momentum, and how much rests on currency tailwinds and expectations that have yet to be tested?
Currency, not conviction, behind the upgrade
BofA lifted its 2026 revenue and EBITDAaL projections for Deutsche Telekom by 1.0% each on 19 October, citing the stronger dollar as the principal driver. That distinction matters. A higher estimate built largely on foreign-exchange effects does not automatically translate into a correspondingly stronger operating performance — though for a conglomerate with a large US footprint, currency can carry considerable weight.
For the third quarter of 2026, the bank projects revenue of EUR 30.98 billion against a market consensus of EUR 30.47 billion, positioning itself above the average analyst view. The regional split explains the US focus: nearly two-thirds of Telekom's revenue came from the United States in the second quarter, meaning both the currency tailwind and fears of fresh competition land squarely on the bulk of the business.
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Management's own yardstick remains the full-year guidance, which targets free cash flow AL of around EUR 20.0 billion.
A report, not an agreement
The Friday slump traced back to Reuters coverage of possible additional competition from SpaceX. Worries rippled through US telecom names including T-Mobile US, and Deutsche Telekom felt the effect as majority shareholder. dpa-AFX likewise attributed the pressure to competitive concerns.
Crucially, the SpaceX talks that have been under discussion formed the backdrop to the decline — not any fresh corporate announcement from Telekom itself. According to Bloomberg, the discussions concerned access to at least 80,000 US mobile sites for a nationwide network. No confirmed SpaceX agreement was in place.
That boundary is worth keeping in view. Infrastructure talks can shift competitive expectations, but they prove neither a completed network buildout nor any effect already felt in Deutsche Telekom's business. The share-price pressure reported reflects expectations about the future competitive landscape, nothing more concrete.
Barclays trims, but stays positive
Barclays cut its price target from EUR 35 to EUR 32 roughly a week earlier while keeping its "Overweight" rating. Analyst Maurice Patrick flagged satellite technology and agentic AI as risks for telecom stocks. The move pairs a more cautious valuation with a still-positive recommendation — a lower target, not a downgrade to a negative call. The reasoning also shows the competition debate extends beyond traditional mobile carriers.
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Consensus remains broadly constructive, though hardly unanimous. Seven buy ratings stand against one hold, with an average price target of EUR 35.20. The spread is wide: BofA has raised its business expectations, while Bernstein stays on the sidelines with a hold and a EUR 28.10 target — evidence that upbeat revenue signals do not produce the same investment decision at every house.
A product launch, and a date to circle
Away from the risk debate, Telekom on Wednesday unveiled "CyberProtect," a cyber-defense service aimed at smaller businesses and monitored around the clock. For a company with 25 devices, the group quotes annual costs of roughly EUR 2,500. It is a concrete operating development, but it does not answer the question of how additional US mobile competition might play out. Product progress and competitive risk have to be assessed separately.
Until 5 November 2026, when the third-quarter figures land, that distinction holds: the market is reacting to possible shifts in competition, which is not the same as a confirmed new rival agreement. The quarter will have to show how durable the higher revenue estimates really are — and whether the business trajectory squares with full-year guidance.
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