Deutsche Telekom's Chart Battle: Can Thursday's Numbers Turn a Technical Recovery Into Something More?
Published on 08/04/2026 at 09:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock market has a way of turning corporate drama into price action, and few stories illustrate that better than Deutsche Telekom's current predicament. The German telecom giant finds itself in an unusual position: its US subsidiary has effectively walked away from a mega-merger that would have reshaped the group, and investors are cheering the decision. But the real test arrives on Thursday, when second-quarter results will determine whether this rebound has genuine legs or is merely a technical blip.
A Merger That Never Was — and Why That's Good News
The catalyst for the recent surge came from an unexpected direction. According to a report from Semafor, T-Mobile US has decided it will no longer actively push for a full merger with its German parent. The market's response was telling: the stock jumped 4.77 percent on Monday to 28.10 euros, with traders interpreting the news as a relief, since it removes the regulatory and financial complexity that a mega-transaction would have entailed. An earlier report had triggered a 2.5 percent gain in early trading, suggesting investors had been bracing for a more complicated outcome.
The logic is straightforward enough. A full-scale merger would have brought significant integration risks and potentially new capital requirements. By stepping back from those plans, T-Mobile US has effectively removed a cloud of uncertainty that had been hanging over the stock. The question now is whether the operational strength of the US business can fill the void.
The Numbers Game
T-Mobile US has been delivering the kind of numbers that keep parent-company executives smiling. When the subsidiary reported its own quarterly results on July 23, it raised its 2026 guidance for adjusted free cash flow to a range of 18.4 to 18.8 billion US dollars and posted a net addition of 277,000 postpaid customers. Given that the US operation is the primary driver of group revenue, these figures will be the centerpiece of Thursday's report.
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The key question for analysts and investors alike: will the group follow suit and raise its own full-year guidance? The management had already lifted its targets in the first quarter, now projecting adjusted EBITDA AL of around 47.5 billion euros, up from a previous 47.4 billion. Free cash flow expectations remain robust at more than 19.8 billion euros. A further upward revision on Thursday would mark the strongest signal to the market in months; a failure to do so could trigger a sobering reassessment.
The Technical Tightrope
The stock's chart tells a story of partial recovery. At its current level of 28.04 euros, the shares sit 19.12 percent above the 52-week low of 23.54 euros touched on June 30. Yet over a 12-month horizon, the stock still shows a loss of 11.13 percent. The shares are trading 4.06 percent above their 50-day moving average but remain 1.92 percent below the 200-day line — a gap that underscores the disconnect between short-term momentum and medium-term weakness.
The 50-day average currently stands at 26.95 euros, while the 200-day sits at 28.59 euros. The 100-day line also looms overhead. Only a sustained move above these longer-term averages would signal a genuine trend reversal rather than a mere bounce. The relative strength index at 60 suggests there is room for further upside without entering overbought territory — technically speaking, at least.
The stock remains 18.37 percent below its February peak of 34.35 euros, a reminder of how deep the intervening sell-off was. Adding to the fragility is an annualized 30-day volatility of 35.94 percent, indicating that the market still expects significant swings — a particular risk ahead of an earnings report that could trigger sharp counter-moves in either direction.
Buybacks and Fiber: The Quiet Bull Case
Beyond the merger drama, the company has been quietly demonstrating confidence in its own valuation. Between July 20 and 24 alone, Deutsche Telekom repurchased 1,353,640 of its own shares, bringing the total since the start of the current tranche on July 1 to 5,026,915. Such aggressive buyback activity typically signals that management considers the stock undervalued.
The fiber rollout continues apace as well. The GlasfaserPlus joint venture reported in mid-July that it had reached 1.5 million connected households. These operational milestones, combined with the US momentum, form the backbone of the bull case heading into Thursday's report.
The Skeptics' Corner
Not everyone is convinced the good times will roll on. Several major banks have trimmed their price targets in recent days, even while maintaining positive ratings. JPMorgan cut its target from 40.00 to 38.00 euros on July 27, citing increased competitive pressure in the US mobile market. The day before, Deutsche Bank lowered its target from 42.00 to 40.00 euros, with analyst Robert Grindle pointing to emerging satellite internet services as a potential new threat to traditional mobile and broadband operations. DZ Bank also reduced its fair value estimate from 37.00 to 35.00 euros at the end of July, citing slightly dampened growth expectations in the US segment.
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The common thread among these revisions is not alarm but caution: despite operational strength, several houses now view US growth dynamics more conservatively than they did just weeks ago. The elevated volatility reading suggests the market has yet to fully price in the implications of both the merger retreat and the intensifying US competitive landscape.
What Thursday Will Tell Us
The immediate path forward hinges on whether the group can translate T-Mobile US's momentum into a formal guidance upgrade. If management confirms or raises its EBITDA and cash flow targets, the thesis of a sustainable trend reversal gains considerable weight. The stock would have arguments to push toward and potentially through its 200-day average, with the February high of 34.35 euros as the next meaningful reference point.
Should the outlook prove more cautious, or should fresh uncertainty emerge around the T-Mobile US relationship, the shares could quickly slip back below the 50-day line, reasserting the medium-term weakness that has characterized much of the past year. The 6. August earnings release is thus not merely a routine quarterly update — it is the moment when the market's competing narratives about Deutsche Telekom will finally be put to the test.
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