Deutsche Telekom's Pivotal Week: A Merger Retreat, a Buyback Blitz, and Earnings That Could Settle the Debate
Published on 08/04/2026 at 13:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of relief is rarely this clean. Deutsche Telekom shares jumped as much as 4.9 percent on Monday, settling at 28.14 euros, after a Semafor report — picked up by dpa-AFX — suggested that T-Mobile US has quietly withdrawn its support for a full-blown merger with its German parent. The market's verdict was immediate: a complex, capital-hungry mega-deal taken off the table is worth more than the synergies it might have promised. The stock has now advanced roughly 10.4 percent over the past 30 days, a run that has carried it to within 1.57 percent of its 200-day moving average.
That technical recovery, however, is about to face its sternest test. On Thursday, the Bonn-based group releases its second-quarter and first-half results, and investors will be parsing two narratives at once: whether the US growth engine can keep humming, and whether the apparent merger retreat is a genuine strategic pivot or merely a media-driven blip.
The US Question That Overshadows Everything
For all the drama surrounding the scuppered merger talks, the operative question for Thursday's report is simpler: does T-Mobile US still have the pedal to the metal? The American subsidiary's own second-quarter numbers, published on July 23, were robust — a net addition of 277,000 postpaid customers, service revenue up 8.9 percent to roughly $19 billion, and adjusted core EBITDA climbing 11.7 percent to $9.5 billion. T-Mobile US also raised its 2026 guidance for adjusted free cash flow to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion.
The stakes for the parent company are clear. With the US operation driving the bulk of group revenue, the market will be watching whether Deutsche Telekom translates that momentum into a full-year guidance upgrade of its own. Such a move would be the strongest signal management could send — a declaration that the group's growth story doesn't need a transformative acquisition to stay compelling. If that upgrade fails to materialize, Thursday's reaction could be decidedly cooler, no matter how solid the underlying numbers look.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Buybacks, Fiber, and a Management Vote of Confidence
While investors await the earnings print, management has been putting its money where its mouth is. The share buyback program continues apace, with the company targeting up to 560 million euros in repurchases under the third tranche of 2026 by the end of September. Between July 27 and 31, Deutsche Telekom bought back 1,336,149 shares at prices ranging from 26.61 to 27.52 euros, bringing the total for the current annual program to roughly 6.36 million shares. A separate window between July 20 and 24 saw 1,353,640 shares repurchased, with 5,026,915 accumulated since the tranche began on July 1.
The fiber rollout, meanwhile, continues to build out the group's long-term growth story. GlasfaserPlus, the joint venture, reported mid-July that it had passed the 1.5 million homes milestone. It's the kind of steady operational progress that tends to get overlooked when merger headlines dominate — but it matters for the patient investor.
The Skeptics' Counterpoint
Not everyone is convinced the rally has legs. The analyst community has been busy trimming price targets, even as it maintains broadly positive ratings. JPMorgan cut its target from 40.00 to 38.00 euros on July 27, keeping an "Overweight" stance but flagging intensifying competition in the US mobile market. The day before, Deutsche Bank reduced its target from 42.00 to 40.00 euros, with analyst Robert Grindle pointing to satellite broadband services — Starlink among them — as a potential new competitive threat to traditional mobile and fixed-line businesses. The DZ Bank followed suit, trimming its fair value from 37.00 to 35.00 euros while reaffirming a buy recommendation, citing slightly dampened growth expectations in the US segment.
The direction of travel is consistent: none of these houses are abandoning the stock, but all are signaling that the easy gains may be behind it. Add to that an annualized 30-day volatility of 35.96 percent, and the picture emerges of a stock still wrestling with an unresolved news flow — merger speculation, US competitive dynamics, and the question of whether guidance gets lifted.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Thursday Will Settle
The 52-week high of 34.35 euros still sits roughly 18 percent above the current price, which gives the bulls a theoretical runway. But the more immediate reference point is the 200-day average, which the stock has yet to reclaim on a sustained basis. The path from here depends almost entirely on how Thursday's numbers are received.
If T-Mobile US's momentum carries through to the group level and management confirms an upgraded outlook, the merger retreat could come to be seen as a clarifying moment — the point at which Deutsche Telekom chose operational discipline over corporate ambition. If, on the other hand, the numbers disappoint or the guidance stays put, Monday's relief rally may look less like a turning point and more like a temporary reprieve. Either way, the market won't have to wait long for its answer: the half-year report lands on August 6, and it will settle the argument one way or the other.
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