Deutsche Telekom's Thursday Report Lands Amid a Stalled $300bn US Prize
Published on 08/06/2026 at 06:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
All eyes turn to Bonn on Thursday morning, when Deutsche Telekom releases its second-quarter and first-half figures at 10:00 CET, followed by a call with analysts. The timing is awkward, to say the least. The stock closed Wednesday down 1.75 percent at EUR 27.45, leaving it roughly 20 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 34.35 reached in late February — and that was before the market had fully digested the news that has since overshadowed everything else.
A Merger That Isn't Happening — For Now
The headline overhang is the apparent collapse, at least temporarily, of plans to fully absorb T-Mobile US. According to a report from Semafor, a $300bn deal to integrate the American subsidiary has run aground, blocked by major institutional minority shareholders of the US unit. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) also raised concerns about the proposed capital structure. For a company that has long viewed its Stateside business as the crown jewel, the setback is significant — and no revised timetable has been offered.
What the Street Expects
Against that backdrop, the consensus numbers carry extra weight. Analysts are looking for second-quarter revenue of EUR 29.95 billion, up from EUR 28.67 billion in the same period last year — a gain of roughly 4.5 percent. Earnings per share are pencilled in at EUR 0.561, compared with EUR 0.540 a year earlier, an increase of about 3.9 percent. For the full year, the estimates are more ambitious: 15 analysts see EPS of EUR 2.23 versus EUR 1.97 in 2025, while 13 forecast revenue of EUR 122.95 billion, up from EUR 119.08 billion.
There has been some tailwind from across the Atlantic. T-Mobile US, reporting its own quarterly numbers in late July, lifted its 2026 guidance for adjusted free cash flow to a range of $18.4bn to $18.8bn. That upgrade offers a measure of comfort, even if the parent company's integration ambitions have stalled.
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Buybacks Carry On Regardless
The share repurchase programme, meanwhile, is proceeding without interruption. Between July 27 and July 31, the company acquired 1,336,149 of its own shares at weighted average prices between EUR 26.61 and EUR 27.52. That follows an earlier tranche from July 20 to July 24, when 1,353,640 shares were bought back via Xetra at average prices of EUR 26.02 to EUR 27.01. Since the current buyback phase began on July 1, the total stands at 5,026,915 shares. Management has earmarked EUR 2 billion for repurchases this year, on top of a roughly EUR 2 billion programme completed in 2025.
A Recovery That Only Goes So Far
The share price has clawed back some ground recently — up 6.4 percent over the past month — but that follows a bruising stretch that saw the stock touch a 52-week low of EUR 23.54 at the end of June. Even with the rebound, the shares remain more than 12 percent lower than they were twelve months ago. The gap between the February high and today's level underscores how much ground has been lost, and how much the market is waiting to see before committing further.
Analysts Trim Targets, Keep Conviction
Sell-side firms have been marking down their price targets, though the ratings themselves remain constructive. DZ Bank cut its fair value from EUR 37.00 to EUR 35.00 on July 28, keeping a "Buy" recommendation. A day earlier, JPMorgan lowered its target from EUR 40.00 to EUR 38.00 while maintaining an "Overweight" stance. Both adjustments were made before the merger news broke, so they may not fully reflect the latest developments.
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The Day Ahead
For investors, the immediate question is whether Thursday's numbers can shift the narrative. If revenue and EPS land close to consensus, the stock could build on its recent gains. But if management strikes a cautious tone on the T-Mobile US situation, uncertainty over the group's future structure is likely to keep weighing on sentiment. The next scheduled milestone comes on November 5, when the company reports third-quarter and nine-month figures. Until then, the market will be parsing every signal — not just the earnings, but what they imply for the US strategy that has been so central to the bull case.
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