Deutsche Telekom: SpaceX Tower Talks Weigh on the Stock as Analysts Split on Buybacks and Tech Risk
Published on 10/25/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom shares fell 3.7% on Friday as investors focused on the prospect of fresh competition in the US mobile market, where SpaceX has reportedly been exploring access to wireless infrastructure. The pressure runs through T-Mobile US, in which the German group holds a majority stake.
Bloomberg reported that SpaceX has held talks over access to at least 80,000 mobile sites, while Reuters linked the weakness in US telecom names to the plans for an additional network. Against that backdrop, the stock's move reflected competitive anxiety rather than any change in Deutsche Telekom's own operations.
Two Houses, Two Emphases, One Rating
The week's analyst notes made clear that the risks and the expectations are being weighed separately. JPMorgan analyst Akhil Dattani reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating on Wednesday and lifted his medium-term estimates, raising his assumption for 2026 share buybacks to EUR 3.5 billion from EUR 2 billion. That figure is explicitly an analyst forecast, not an announced change to the company's repurchase programme — a distinction that matters, since it describes expected capital returns rather than a new corporate commitment, and does nothing to resolve the competitive questions hanging over the US business.
Barclays took a different tack on Tuesday, cutting its price target to EUR 32 from EUR 35 while keeping "Overweight." The bank pointed to sector-wide technological risks, naming satellite technology and agentic AI. The two positions are not opposing investment verdicts — both houses remain positive on the stock; they simply stress different things, with one focused on buyback expectations and the other on technology risk. JPMorgan left its EUR 38 target unchanged.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
AI Gains, Measured in the Lab
Technology is not purely a threat for Deutsche Telekom. Working with Nokia and NVIDIA, the company reported on Wednesday that initial lab measurements of AI-based uplink channel estimation delivered typical throughput gains of 10% to 15%. A field test is the next step, meaning the results so far demonstrate progress under laboratory conditions rather than widespread deployment in the live network. That boundary is central to how the stock should be read: a technical proof of concept is not the same as realised business effects.
The company is also pushing new offers for business customers. On Wednesday it unveiled CyberProtect, a round-the-clock cyber defence service aimed at smaller firms, priced at roughly EUR 2,500 a year for a sample customer with 25 devices. The figure illustrates the offering but says nothing about its future revenue contribution.
A Satellite Bid Still on the Drawing Board
Deutsche Telekom is also responding to the satellite shift through possible cooperation. On 19 October it signed a letter of intent with Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone to examine a joint bid for mobile satellite service frequencies in the EU. No application has been decided yet.
For now, investors face a clear separation: a possible new competitor is weighing on valuation expectations, while JPMorgan's higher buyback assumption and the lab results offer counterarguments without neutralising that risk. The next fixed checkpoint is third-quarter 2026 results on 5 November, when financial performance moves back to centre stage. Until then, early technical progress stands against concerns about future competition — with no proven economic contribution from the lab tests as yet.
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