Evonik Finance Chief Calls BASF Timing 'Truly Odd' as Cash Flow Backs Standalone Path
Published on 11/05/2026 at 08:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's defense of its independence is resting on two pillars this week: a finance chief openly questioning BASF's timing, and quarterly figures that give the company's go-it-alone argument some financial ballast. Whether that is enough to see off a takeover approach is a separate matter.
Michael Rauch, Evonik's chief financial officer, used Tuesday's platform to describe the timing of BASF's takeover plans as "truly odd." His remarks came as the group reiterated its commitment to remaining a standalone business and pushed back on BASF's raised offer of EUR 24 per share.
The board had already rejected takeover talks on 30 October. What Evonik did leave open was a confidential exchange of information — purely informational in nature. The distinction matters: willingness to share information is not the same as willingness to negotiate a deal.
Ownership Structure Adds Weight to the Strategy
Behind the board's stance sits the RAG-Stiftung, which according to a Handelsblatt report on Tuesday holds 44% of Evonik, making it a pivotal player in the takeover standoff. Its stake turns the shareholder register into a decisive factor in where Evonik goes from here.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
On the operating side, Tuesday's quarterly release offered supporting evidence. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 climbed 40% to EUR 629 million. That fell just shy of the EUR 633.2 million analyst consensus, a slight miss that helps explain why a strong improvement does not automatically translate into a more favorable view from the analyst community. Revenue advanced 13%.
For the full year 2026, Evonik expects adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of its guidance range. Free cash flow told a similar story of recovery: EUR 369 million in the third quarter and EUR 601 million across the first nine months. Management is guiding toward roughly EUR 850 million in free cash flow for 2026 — a forecast, not a banked result.
JPMorgan Stays Cautious on Cash
JPMorgan raised its price target to EUR 15 from EUR 14 on Tuesday but kept its "Underweight" rating. Analyst Chetan Udeshi pointed to revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA both coming in slightly below expectations. He also flagged expected pressure on free cash flow from restructuring charges in 2027/28 — a projection rather than a cost already incurred.
That leaves investors with a split picture. The earnings improvement underpins Evonik's standalone case, yet the strength of that case also hinges on how heavily restructuring will weigh on available cash. That is the yardstick the economic argument for independence will ultimately be measured against.
Evonik at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Infrastructure Question Extends Beyond the Parent
The strategic debate stretches past the group itself. Reuters reported on 27 October that Thomas Basten, spokesperson for the management of Evonik's Syneqt unit — which has been put up for sale — described independence for the subsidiary as strategically sensible. BASF had previously said it could operate the Marl and Wesseling chemical parks itself, putting the future shape of the infrastructure business alongside the takeover question.
For shareholders, the free cash flow figures make Evonik's own case. The divergent views on infrastructure show the strategic contest is far from settled by the latest set of numbers.
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