Evonik's €10.3 Billion Snub: A 60% Rally, a Wary Foundation and the Quarter That Decides What Comes Next
Published on 10/10/2026 at 17:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's share price closed at €21.42, capping a run that has lifted the specialty chemicals maker by 60% since the start of the year. The advance rests less on the income statement than on a single, unresolved question: whether BASF will come back with a bigger cheque.
That question took shape roughly a week ago, when reports surfaced of BASF's interest in a voluntary public takeover offer for all Evonik shares. Management confirmed the approach had arrived — and turned it down. Reuters, citing people familiar with the talks, put the rejected package at €10.3 billion, a figure the Essen-based company judged too low.
A suitor that may not be finished
The rebuff has not closed the door. People close to BASF indicated the offer was not its final word should negotiations materialise, according to Handelsblatt. Evonik, for its part, has stressed that no formal talks are currently under way.
Sitting between the two boards is the RAG Foundation's board of trustees, which was briefed about the approach about a week ago but stopped short of taking a position, pointing instead to bilateral discussions between the companies. The foundation's stance matters because an approach of this kind does not hinge on operating metrics alone; ownership structures carry at least as much weight.
Michael Vassiliadis, head of the IG BCE union, added a further layer of scrutiny in an internal letter to works councils, questioning whether a stake sale could be squared with the foundation's stated purpose.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Politicians split on a state anchor
The courtship has also pulled regional politics into the fray. The opposition SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia's state parliament floated a state shareholding to safeguard Evonik's independence. The FDP parliamentary group came out against any government entry, arguing instead for better industrial conditions — affordable energy and fewer bureaucratic hurdles.
On the shareholder register, AVGP Limited trimmed its voting rights to 2.81% on 24 September.
Analysts mark their cards
Research houses have been recalibrating. Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" on Monday and lifted its price target to €20. Analyst Sebastian Bray argued that takeover interest could put a floor under the stock even if methionine prices decline. Parmantier & Cie reached a comparable conclusion on Tuesday, issuing a "Hold" rating with a €20.50 target in a sector study.
Earlier, on 28 September, DZ Bank had already revised its view. Analyst Peter Spengler raised his fair value from €21 to €22 while keeping a "Buy" rating, naming takeover speculation as the main driver of further upside.
Those targets now sit close to where the stock actually trades — a sign that the market has already priced in a good deal of the speculation.
November 3 looms
With valuation headroom thinning, attention shifts to the operating picture. Evonik publishes its third-quarter report on 3 November, a release that will show how the business is holding up in a demanding market and give investors fresh fundamentals against which to judge the recent share price gains. Until then, the strategic future of the specialty chemicals group stays open.
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