Evonik's €10.3 Billion Standoff: BASF Circles, Berlin Watches, and 3,200 Jobs Hang in the Balance
Published on 10/08/2026 at 08:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth used Wednesday to restate his company's appetite for consolidation, confirming that the Ludwigshafen giant intends to press its advantage as a sector-wide merger wave gathers pace. For Evonik shareholders, the message lands at an awkward moment: the specialty chemicals maker closed Wednesday at €20.86, a whisker below its 52-week high of €21.04, leaving investors to judge how much deal premium is already baked into the price.
The timing is delicate. Roughly a week has passed since the two sides confirmed exploratory talks over a possible Evonik takeover, with both companies insisting no outcome has been settled. Evonik has acknowledged an unsolicited approach but stressed that no formal negotiations are under way — meaning the market is currently pricing a courtship that has not officially begun.
Where the Deal Stalls
Everything now hinges on price. According to reports in the Financial Times and Süddeutsche Zeitung, BASF floated a non-binding offer of about €22.15 per share, valuing the transaction at €10.3 billion. Evonik's leadership turned it down as too low — a rebuff that signals willingness to talk while raising the bar for any settlement. The gap between that opening figure and management's expectations has become the fault line running through the share price.
Whether BASF returns with a materially improved bid — one capable of winning over both the executive board and anchor shareholder RAG-Stiftung — is the question that will shape the coming weeks. Since Evonik maintains that no formal talks are taking place, the market is effectively front-running a negotiation that has yet to start.
Politics Enters the Fray
The standoff has spilled into regional politics. SPD lawmakers in North Rhine-Westphalia filed a state parliamentary motion on Tuesday proposing a public stake, which would combine with RAG-Stiftung's holding to keep more than 50 percent plus X of the company in friendly hands. Representatives of the NRW state government and the FDP responded with rejection and reservation respectively, leaving the proposal's prospects uncertain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Evonik's Own Agenda
Running parallel to the takeover chatter, Evonik is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. Late in September the company said it would sharpen its growth strategy, assigning binding role profiles to its business units and its major German production sites. Alongside ongoing investment projects in Canada and Slovakia, the group plans to launch a new business unit called Designed Polymer Solutions, aimed at cementing its position in higher-margin specialty applications while the wider sector grapples with cyclical headwinds.
The centerpiece of the restructuring remains the Evonik Tailor Made program, which will cut 3,200 positions worldwide, including roughly 2,150 in Germany. The second phase of the program is not scheduled until 2027 to 2029, and executing the job reductions will carry substantial restructuring costs.
What the Analysts See
The mix of M&A speculation and sector fundamentals is reflected in recent broker calls. Berenberg's Sebastian Bray upgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Sell" on October 5, lifting his price target to €20 and noting that BASF's confirmed interest provides a valuation floor. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. reiterated a "Hold" rating with a €20.50 target under a sector study, a cautious stance that underscores how limited the fundamental valuation looks without a deal premium.
Two Paths From Here
In the bull case, BASF raises the pressure with a binding offer well above the earlier discussion level. Should Ludwigshafen table terms that properly honor the operating value of Evonik's specialty chemicals divisions, the stock would likely clear its annual high in short order. Combine that with internal cost savings, and management would hold a strong hand for renegotiation or a bidding contest.
The bear case is a swift collapse of talks. If BASF walks away without a formal offer, or if price demands or shareholder resistance prove insurmountable, the merger premium could drain from the quote quickly. Operational challenges would then return to center stage, and the shares would have to prove that demand in Evonik's core specialty markets can defend the current level unaided.
Evonik has gained 56 percent since the start of the year, and the stock ended Wednesday just 0.9 percent below its 52-week peak. Holding above the €20 mark keeps merger speculation as the dominant trading driver. Attention now turns to November 3, 2026, when Evonik publishes its quarterly statement and reports on third-quarter operating performance — a date that could decide whether the standalone story or the takeover narrative carries the day.
Ad
Evonik Stock: New Analysis - 8 October
Fresh Evonik information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
