Evonik's €22.15 Question: A Rejected Bid, a Pharma Bet, and 3,200 Jobs in Play
Published on 10/08/2026 at 18:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's board has drawn a line in the sand. According to media reports, management at the Essen-based specialty chemicals group turned down an approach from BASF valuing the company at roughly €22.15 per share, dismissing the figure as inadequate. The rebuff came barely a week after word of BASF's interest first surfaced, and it has left shareholders weighing a single, uncomfortable question: can Evonik justify that price on its own merits?
The market's initial answer has been cautiously optimistic. The stock has added 3.5% since the takeover interest became public, changing hands at €20.98. At one point during the session it printed €21.24, putting the 52-week high of €21.26 within touching distance. That resilience reflects a bet on deal-making rather than any sudden upswing in the underlying business.
Analysts Trim Their Bearish Bets
The research community has been quick to recalibrate. Berenberg analyst Sebastian Bray lifted his rating from "Sell" to "Hold" on October 2, raising his price target to €20. His reasoning rests less on Evonik's earnings power than on the floor that consolidation chatter could provide, even with methionine prices under pressure. Parmantier & Cie followed suit on Tuesday, issuing a hold recommendation in its sector note.
Those upgrades frame the central tension facing investors. The recent rally was not born of a surge in demand across Evonik's core operations; it was triggered by the disclosure of strategic soundings. Strip away the bid speculation, and the shares are left exposed to a chemicals cycle that remains unforgiving.
Ludwigshafen Keeps the Door Ajar
BASF has confirmed it held exploratory talks with Evonik and the RAG Foundation over a possible combination, while pointedly declining to guarantee either the continuation or the outcome of those discussions. Chief executive Markus Kamieth reinforced his company's appetite for acquisitions on Monday, arguing that pairing with a strong specialty chemicals player like Evonik makes strategic sense.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Should Ludwigshafen return with a sweeter offer, it would almost certainly need to clear the €22.15 mark it already proposed, handing the stock fresh momentum. That upside scenario is buttressed by progress inside Evonik's own laboratories. The group is developing a biodegradable polymer platform for future EUDRAGIT excipients used in oral drug delivery, with initial non-commercial lab quantities already available for joint projects with partners. Such work underscores the technological value locked inside the specialty portfolio and could strengthen management's hand at the negotiating table.
Politics Enters the Fray
Not everyone in Germany is cheering for a deal. In the North Rhine-Westphalia state parliament, the SPD caucus is pushing for the state to examine taking a stake in Evonik, with the aim of securing a controlling majority alongside the RAG Foundation. Regional initiatives designed to fend off a takeover could complicate any transaction further, adding a layer of uncertainty that has little to do with spreadsheets.
Self-Help on Two Fronts
To underwrite its independence in economic terms, Evonik is pressing ahead with an internal overhaul. Under the "Evonik Tailor Made" program, 3,200 positions are slated to disappear worldwide, including roughly 2,150 in Germany. The finer details will be worked out through the end of 2026, before the initiative enters a second implementation phase from 2027. The company also intends to shed two smaller German sites next year.
Investment is being channeled selectively toward growth. At the Fermas site in Slovenská ?up?a, construction has begun on a biotechnology expansion forming part of an investment package worth around €80 million.
The Verdict Lands November 3
For now, the picture resolves into a fairly straightforward calculus. As long as talks remain alive and the stock holds near Berenberg's €20 target, the downside looks reasonably cushioned. If BASF's willingness to negotiate evaporates, the takeover premium is likely to drain away quickly, leaving the shares to fend for themselves against soft product prices and persistent cost pressure.
The next hard data point arrives soon. Evonik has scheduled publication of its third-quarter 2026 report for November 3, 2026. That date will reveal how far the company's operating earnings can carry the current valuation premium without a suitor at the door. Since the start of the year, the stock has climbed 57% — a gain whose foundations in the actual business will face their first real test in a matter of weeks.
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