Evonik's €24 Question: A Sweetened Bid, a Silent Owner, and Two Paths Forward

BASF has reportedly raised its offer for Evonik to €24 per share, up from roughly €22.15, according to Reuters — a pure cash bid that the Handelsblatt describes as such. The news lifted Evonik shares 3.4% yesterday, yet the stock at €21.32 (and €21.40 at Friday's close) still trades below the reported price. That gap is not a locked-in return. It is the market's way of pricing the uncertainty over whether takeover interest will ever harden into a binding transaction.

Neither BASF nor Evonik would comment on the reports. Reuters cites multiple people familiar with the negotiations, which is a different thing from a public statement by the companies involved. A raised offer and an executable acquisition remain separate stages — and investors would be wise not to confuse the two.

The Foundation's Silence Is the Pivot

The decisive voice belongs to RAG-Stiftung, Evonik's largest shareholder. Reuters calls its approval key. The foundation has not commented on the increased offer, leaving the venture's prospects without their most important signal. On 9 October, according to Handelsblatt, its board of trustees discussed BASF's interest for the first time but did not publicly commit to a position on the bid. A clear stance from the foundation could shift the assessment; the October deliberation alone provides no direction.

For shareholders, a positive statement from this anchor investor would likely carry more weight than further speculation about the offer price. Even a willingness by Evonik's management to examine the new bid is a different matter — it would show only that the offer is being looked at more closely, not that the key parties have already converged. The choice comes down to betting on a rapprochement or weighting more heavily the fact that central approvals are still missing. A simple comparison of share price and offer falls short.

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Job Guarantees as a Bridge

BASF is not relying on price alone. Chief executive Markus Kamieth pledged yesterday to honour existing site agreements in the event of a takeover. Compulsory redundancies would be ruled out until 2032, and collective agreements and social partnership would be preserved. Such commitments could improve acceptance among employees and their representatives.

There is also a possible future for the Marl and Wesseling chemical parks, which BASF is considering operating itself. Evonik, by contrast, plans to sell Syneqt with its roughly 3,500 employees, and at least one board division is to move to Essen. BASF is thus pairing its financial offer with a vision for the future site structure.

The reassurances do not automatically dissolve reservations, however. According to the F.A.Z., Evonik's works council has voiced doubts about the job promises. BASF works council chief Sinischa Horvat called the combination understandable but warned against hollowing out the Ludwigshafen site agreement through takeover financing or follow-on costs. If the assurances fail to dispel existing doubts, a higher price alone may not be enough to overcome resistance.

A Parallel Shopping List

Evonik's own strategic direction is also under discussion. Reuters picked up a Handelsblatt report that Evonik has long been weighing a possible acquisition of Ashland. The company is said to have enlisted Perella Weinberg Partners and JPMorgan to search for suitable takeover targets, though the report confirmed no deal. According to one source cited by Reuters, BASF considers such a purchase too risky. This is no secured alternative to the BASF scenario — an examination is not a resolved transaction — but it shows why valuation should not be pinned solely to a possible takeover price. Evonik's standalone development remains part of the investment case.

What Would Confirm the Optimistic Case

In the favourable scenario, the companies confirm the essential points of the Reuters report, placing takeover expectations on firmer ground. Investors could then weight the reported terms more heavily without inferring a certain completion from a confirmation. Visible support for the plan would add ballast — though content would matter: a general willingness to talk is not the same as explicit agreement to concrete conditions. The reported employment and site commitments could gain importance in such a scenario, but whether they actually foster approval cannot be deduced from them.

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The downside risk lies in an unconfirmed or divergent development. Should the report fail to harden, part of the takeover-related share-price support could evaporate. A formal failure would not even be necessary; a materially different structure could already shift expectations. If the willingness of a key party tips, the offer price ceases to be a reliable valuation anchor.

November as the Fixed Checkpoint

Until the reported terms are confirmed, scenario-based valuation is more appropriate than calculating with a certain takeover proceeds. The next concrete date is 3 November, when Evonik has announced publication of its third-quarter 2026 report. That provides a fixed occasion to examine the operating basis of the valuation — though no statement on the takeover has been announced. Business development and transaction progress therefore remain separate tests within the same decision. The next real catalyst would be Evonik's statement on its review or a positioning from RAG-Stiftung; an official confirmation of the offer terms could also reduce uncertainty. A confirmed offer would be more than an insider report, but still less than an agreed takeover. Only a discernible convergence of the key parties would substantially strengthen the optimistic case.

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