Evonik's €24 Test: Price Is the Easy Part
Published on 10/24/2026 at 16:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF has reportedly lifted its indicative offer for Evonik to €24 per share, but the sweetened number answers only one of several questions standing between the chemicals giant and a completed deal. The rest sit with Evonik's largest shareholder, its workforce, and Europe's competition regulators.
Reuters, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported the higher figure on Friday, up from roughly €22.15 previously floated. That would value Evonik at about €11.18 billion. Neither company has confirmed the number, and the Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung reported the raised offer today without obtaining comment from either side. Evonik shares closed yesterday at €21.40, up 3.4% — still below the reported bid, a gap that reflects possibility rather than certainty.
A Foundation That Hasn't Spoken
The decisive voice may belong not to either company but to the RAG-Stiftung, Evonik's major anchor shareholder. Europa Press described the foundation's backing on Friday as crucial to the outcome. No public endorsement of the higher offer has surfaced; Reuters said neither Evonik nor the foundation would comment.
That silence matters because a financially improved proposal is not the same thing as a workable agreement. Evonik rejected the earlier approach as too low, according to media reports, and also declined talks and access for deeper due diligence. The dpa news agency said no response to the raised bid had been received as of its reporting. Whether the new price bridges the gap between the parties is unknown.
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BASF confirmed exploratory talks with Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung on 25 September. At the time, Evonik acknowledged an unsolicited approach for a voluntary public offer covering all shares but said no talks were underway. No direct negotiations have been reported since.
Promises With an Asterisk
BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth has sketched out conditions for a combination. Evonik's existing site agreements would be taken over, compulsory redundancies would be ruled out until 2032, and collective bargaining agreements and social partnership would remain untouched.
BASF was careful to add that Kamieth's statement did not constitute an offer; formal terms would appear only in an offer document. That distinction is central for investors — public reassurances are not yet binding transaction conditions.
The workforce picture cuts both ways. BASF's own works council chief, Sinischa Horvat, is demanding job security and investment in Ludwigshafen, warning that financing the takeover must not hollow out the site's existing agreement. Any concessions to Evonik would therefore have to square with the buyer's own employees. Meanwhile, Evonik is already planning to cut around 3,200 jobs worldwide by the end of 2029, about 2,150 of them in Germany — a restructuring that would inevitably intersect with any takeover pledges. Nothing in Kamieth's assurances alters those existing plans.
The Antitrust Wall and a US Detour
Industrial logic alone won't clear the path. ZDF reported Friday on complementary portfolios and potential advantages in raw material supply and value creation — arguments for examining a combination, not answers to the ownership or competition questions. An expert cited by ZDF noted that BASF and Evonik together frequently hold more than 50% of the global market in individual specialty chemicals segments. A cartel review would therefore be pivotal, and North Rhine-Westphalia opposes a takeover, according to the report.
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Evonik, for its part, may be charting a different course. Reuters reports the company is examining Ashland, whose market value is put at around $3.3 billion. A Reuters source said BASF considers such a purchase too risky. The Ashland review is not a agreed acquisition, nor is it certain Evonik would pursue that route — but diverging views on the company's future direction could complicate any rapprochement.
For shareholders, the risk is pricing in a completed deal. Should the approach falter, the reported offer price would be no reliable valuation floor. The remaining spread between the share price and the bid cannot be read in isolation: against it stands the possibility that no binding offer ever materialises.
The next meaningful signal would be a substantive response to the raised proposal — confirmation of terms, or a willingness to enter direct negotiations, each to be judged separately from any final agreement. No date for such a response has been confirmed. Until then, Evonik's readiness to talk remains the more important test than the higher price alone.
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