Evonik's 43% Gatekeeper: RAG Foundation Holds Veto as BASF Circles
Published on 10/10/2026 at 06:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF's ambitions for a tie-up with Evonik hinge on a single shareholder. The RAG Foundation controls 43% of the Essen-based specialty chemicals group — a stake large enough to block any change of ownership outright, making the coal-legacy fund the decisive voice in a deal that Ludwigshafen's BASF is still only probing.
The foundation's total assets carried a book value of EUR 15.9 billion at the end of 2025. It must finance the follow-on costs of Germany's hard-coal mining industry, which leaves it dependent on dependable returns — a consideration that weighs heavily against cashing out of one of its steadiest holdings.
BASF's opening salvo, worth roughly EUR 10.3 billion, or EUR 22.15 per Evonik share, was turned down by Evonik's management a little over two weeks ago as inadequate. The stock closed Friday at EUR 21.42, still trading below the rejected level. By Monday, however, buyers had stepped in: the shares added 1.9% to EUR 21.46, pulling the stock within touching distance of its 52-week high of EUR 21.62.
A Suitor Weighing Concessions
According to two people familiar with the matter, BASF is considering commitments on jobs and sites — a signal that the chemicals giant may sweeten its rebuffed offer should formal talks ever begin. Reuters reported the deliberations. Evonik's leadership, for its part, kept its distance, stating plainly that no talks with BASF are currently underway.
The two companies cut very different profiles. BASF posted revenue of just under EUR 60 billion in 2025 with close to 100,000 employees, while Evonik generated around EUR 14 billion in sales with a workforce of just over 31,000. BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth has argued that combining with a strong specialty chemicals player makes strategic sense.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Political Pushback From Düsseldorf
Opposition to a sale is building well beyond the shareholder register. North Rhine-Westphalia's state premier, Hendrik Wüst, made clear that Evonik's independent development must not be put at risk. Roughly 11,000 of the group's employees work in the state alone.
Labor has voiced its own doubts. IG BCE chairman Michael Vassiliadis questioned whether a full sale of Evonik is the right path, though he stopped short of ruling anything out definitively.
The SPD caucus in the NRW state parliament floated a different idea entirely: that the state itself examine taking a stake in Evonik, pairing with the RAG Foundation to secure a controlling majority.
Berenberg Steps Back From Its Bearish Call
The takeover chatter has reshaped how the market prices the stock. On Monday, private bank Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold," with analyst Sebastian Bray lifting his target from EUR 15.50 to EUR 20. Bray pointed to BASF's interest as the driver behind the change.
Even so, the market continues to apply a risk discount. Evonik's market capitalization of EUR 9.79 billion sits below what a completed transaction might imply. Should the exploratory phase turn into formal negotiations, the bidder would likely need to improve its financial terms and offer guarantees covering sites and staff.
Pharma Progress Continues Regardless
Evonik is not standing still on its own specialty chemicals agenda while ownership questions swirl. On Monday the company unveiled biodegradable excipients for oral drug delivery, with selected partners set to receive initial laboratory quantities for joint development work. A day later, at the CPHI trade fair in Milan, it collected an industry award for automated laboratory systems in the digital transformation category.
Hard financial figures arrive next month. Evonik publishes its third-quarter 2026 results on November 3.
Until the two companies sit down officially, the outcome of BASF's courtship remains entirely open. Both the RAG Foundation and employee representatives are likely to measure every further move from Ludwigshafen against hard concessions.
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