Evonik's Balancing Act: A Rebuffed Suitor, a Political Shield, and 3,200 Jobs in the Crossfire
Published on 10/08/2026 at 18:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's board has made its position plain: the roughly EUR 22.15 per share that BASF floated for the Essen-based specialty chemicals maker is not enough. The rejection, reported in the media, came barely a week after word of BASF's interest first surfaced — and it has done little to cool the stock, which has climbed 3.5% since the approach became public and now trades at EUR 20.98, within touching distance of its 52-week high of EUR 21.06.
The Ludwigshafen giant has confirmed it held exploratory talks with both Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung, the company's anchor shareholder, while describing the outcome as open. No formal negotiations are currently underway between the two chemical groups.
DĂĽsseldorf Enters the Fray
Politics has now muscled its way into a deal that was already delicate. This week, the SPD parliamentary group in North Rhine-Westphalia filed a motion calling on the state government to examine taking a stake in Evonik. The aim is a joint holding with the RAG-Stiftung exceeding 50% plus X — a blocking majority designed to keep the company out of foreign hands. The state parliament is expected to debate the motion next week.
The initiative puts the RAG-Stiftung at the center of the decision. Whether a transaction succeeds or collapses hinges largely on the price the foundation deems adequate for surrendering its control. For investors, the question is whether the valuation premium earned since the bid news can survive a political blockade that slows the process to a crawl.
Cost Cuts as a Defense
While the takeover drama plays out, Evonik is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. Under the "Evonik Tailor Made" program, 3,200 positions are to be eliminated worldwide, including roughly 2,150 in Germany. The details will be worked out through the end of 2026, with the second phase of implementation beginning in 2027. Two smaller German sites are also slated for closure next year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
The company is not retreating on all fronts. At its Fermas facility in Slovenská ?up?a, construction has begun on a biotechnology expansion forming part of an investment package worth about EUR 80 million. Evonik also sharpened its growth strategy just over a week ago, a move that helped lift the shares 5.6% since. The plan restructures the portfolio around clearer role profiles and aims to secure the earning power of its six major German production sites — a prerequisite, management argues, for holding its ground against any bidder.
On the innovation side, Evonik announced on October 5 a biodegradable polymer platform for oral drug delivery, a specialty application that could strengthen its hand in negotiations by demonstrating higher synergies and sharper focus.
Analysts Split Between Support and Caution
The analyst community has taken note of the shifting landscape. Berenberg's Sebastian Bray upgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Hold" — on October 2 according to one account, October 5 according to another — and raised his price target to EUR 20 from EUR 15.50. Bray's reasoning: takeover speculation is propping up the shares even as falling prices for methionine, an animal feed additive, weigh on the operating business. On October 6, Parmantier & Cie. reiterated a hold rating with a EUR 20.50 target.
The gap between industrial reality and shareholder expectations sits at the heart of the standoff. Should management succeed in defending Evonik's independence, it must prove that its own restructuring creates more value than a merger would.
Two Paths, One Binary Bet
The bull case rests on the relentless consolidation pressure in European chemicals. To overcome resistance from management and the foundation, BASF would need to raise its offer substantially. Market observers view the EUR 22.15 figure as little more than an opening bid.
The bear case is equally concrete. If the deal collapses over political objections or a lasting defensive front forms in the state parliament, BASF could walk away for good. The takeover premium would evaporate, forcing the stock to be valued on operating fundamentals alone — and with weaker product prices and persistent margin pressure across the chemical cycle, the rally that was built largely on deal fantasy could unwind quickly. Restructuring costs from the job cuts loom as an additional drag in coming quarters. Without tangible earnings improvements in the core business, the shares risk sliding back toward summer valuation levels.
For now, traders face a binary risk profile. As long as speculation about an improved BASF offer dominates, the price should find support. A confirmed withdrawal by BASF, or a blocking minority pushed through by North Rhine-Westphalia, would likely trigger a downward revaluation.
The next fundamental milestone is already circled: on November 3, 2026, Evonik publishes its quarterly statement for the third quarter of 2026. By then, the market will know whether fresh negotiation rounds have emerged — or whether the operating numbers have retaken control of the share price.
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