Evonik's Foundation Board Meets as BASF's €10.3 Billion Courtship Hangs in the Balance
Published on 10/08/2026 at 21:13 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The fate of BASF's informal pursuit of Evonik now rests with a single body of trustees. On Friday, the RAG Foundation's board convenes to weigh the Ludwigshafen giant's overtures toward the Essen-based specialty chemicals maker — a gathering that, while not expected to produce a formal resolution, represents the closest thing to a verdict in a takeover drama that has gripped the share price for days.
The foundation is no ordinary shareholder. Holding 43 percent of Evonik, it effectively controls whether any bid can succeed. Without its blessing, no offer stands a realistic chance.
Ahead of that meeting, the stock has been hovering near record territory. Evonik shares changed hands at €21.04, leaving them just 1.0 percent shy of their 52-week high of €21.26. Investors now face a familiar dilemma in event-driven situations: whether the speculation still offers room to run, or whether the risk of talks collapsing outweighs the potential upside. Since the start of the year, the equity has added 57 percent.
The backdrop is a classic special situation. BASF publicly confirmed roughly a week ago that it had made non-binding overtures to both Evonik and the RAG Foundation. In such phases, conventional valuation metrics tend to take a back seat to the tactics of major shareholders.
A Valuation Gap at the Heart of the Standoff
Everything now hinges on the price at which the foundation would be willing to part with its stake — and whether BASF is prepared to meet it. According to media reports, Evonik's leadership turned down an initial offer of around €22.15 per share, valuing the company at roughly €10.3 billion, as too low. After that rejection, the Essen-based group stated that no further talks were taking place. BASF, for its part, has stressed that the course and outcome of the exploratory discussions remain entirely open. Both sides, along with the RAG Foundation, declined to comment on the reports at the time.
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Complicating any potential agreement is mounting resistance from political and labor quarters. IG BCE officials Michael Vassiliadis and Alexander Bercht questioned the wisdom of a full sale of Evonik to the Ludwigshafen group in a letter to the works councils of both companies, cautioning against hasty decisions. Adding to the pressure, the SPD parliamentary group in North Rhine-Westphalia has floated the idea of a state-level stake to block the deal.
The anchor shareholder thus finds itself weighing its long-term obligation to fund perpetual liabilities against considerable political headwinds.
What a Sweetened Bid Could Do for the Stock
Should the foundation's trustees clear the way for deeper negotiations, the bullish scenario writes itself: BASF would have to dig deeper into its pockets. Since the earlier €22.15 proposal reportedly ran into management resistance, market participants expect that a binding public offer would only materialize with a meaningful premium attached. A raised bid would lift the current price and justify the speculative premium embedded in the stock.
Analysts have already begun adjusting their views. Sebastian Bray of private bank Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" on October 5, lifting his price target from €15.50 to €20.00. He explicitly cited BASF's takeover interest and the supportive effect of the exploratory talks. A day later, on October 6, research house Parmantier & Cie reaffirmed its "Hold" rating with a €20.50 target. Both houses signal that the merger scenario lends the stock a solid valuation floor — as long as the negotiations are not officially declared dead.
Bray's note also pointed out that the ongoing discussion about a possible deal could underpin the share price even if methionine prices decline.
The Downside If BASF Walks Away
The bearish risk is far from negligible. If the RAG Foundation signals on Friday or in the days that follow that it intends to hold on to its 43 percent stake, BASF's interest would likely fade quickly. The takeover premium would evaporate, and investor attention would snap back to the operational reality of the MDAX-listed group.
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Without the M&A narrative, Evonik's deep-seated operational challenges would return to center stage. In September, the company announced plans to cut 3,200 jobs worldwide under its "Evonik Tailor Made" restructuring program, with roughly 2,150 of those cuts in Germany. The savings initiative is not scheduled to enter its second phase until 2027 and is set to run through 2029.
As part of a sharpened growth strategy, Evonik also intends to sharpen its focus on core activities and redefine the roles of key German sites, while closing two smaller German production and technology facilities next year. Until the cost reductions take hold, the difficult industry environment will continue to weigh heavily on the specialty chemicals maker's margins. A collapse of the takeover talks could therefore trigger a notable price decline, given that the current valuation rests substantially on deal hopes.
Scenarios for the Autumn and the Next Hard Date
As long as the foundation keeps the door open to talks with BASF and the prospect of a sweetened offer remains alive, the stock is likely to find support above the €20 mark. Should the RAG Foundation formally rebuff the approach, or BASF officially pull the plug on its explorations, sentiment would flip rapidly and the price would likely drift back toward the fundamental levels seen before the talks became public.
Beyond the M&A speculation, the next fundamental catalyst is already circled on the calendar: on November 3, 2026, Evonik will publish its quarterly report for the third quarter of 2026. That update will give investors concrete insight into the group's operating earnings power — and demonstrate just how urgently the Essen-based chemicals maker needs deep restructuring or strategic alliances. Until then, the verdict of the foundation's committees remains the dominant driver for the stock.
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