Evonik's Political Headwind: NRW Rejects BASF Deal as €24 Bid Stays Non-Binding
Published on 10/27/2026 at 20:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik finds itself squeezed between two kinds of pressure that investors would do well not to confuse. One is a price question — how much BASF is willing to pay. The other is political — whether North Rhine-Westphalia's state government will tolerate the combination at all. A richer offer answers only the first.
On 14 October, the state government came out against the merger on the floor of the Landtag. Economics Minister Mona Neubaur went further, rejecting the SPD's proposal for the state to take a stake in Evonik itself. That leaves the regional administration holding two distinct positions at once: it opposes the takeover, and it equally declines to become a shareholder. Neither stance should be read as a pledge of financial intervention — an unwanted bid does not translate into backing for a state entry.
A Higher Number, Still Not a Commitment
The bid arithmetic moved on Friday. Handelsblatt reported that BASF had lifted its offer to roughly €24 per share, or about €11.2 billion, after Evonik turned down the initial approach as too low. Reuters, citing two people familiar with the transaction, put the same €24 figure against a valuation of around €11.18 billion. Talks are said to be continuing. Bloomberg characterised the improved proposal as non-binding, and Evonik declined to comment to dpa-AFX.
The distinction matters more than the headline number. A reported price indication is neither a guaranteed payout to shareholders nor a locked-in future share price. Evonik stock trades at €21.30, below the offer on the table — a gap that reflects uncertainty rather than any calculable probability of completion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Two Open Doors, Not One
Running alongside the takeover story is Evonik's own dealmaking. Reuters reported on Thursday that the Essen-based group is among several parties examining a purchase of US chemicals firm Ashland. Crucially, that review began before BASF made its move, which makes it hard to frame the Ashland interest as a defensive reaction. Evonik declined to comment, and Reuters said no deal was imminent.
So the company could end up as a target or as an acquirer — or neither. Investors should treat the sweetened BASF offer as an unsecured sale proceeds figure and the Ashland review as a possibility rather than a decided expansion.
What Is Actually Signed
Away from the speculation, Evonik delivered something concrete on 20 October: the launch of its VESTAKEEP PEEK grades DC4760 and DC4780, aimed at long-term dental prosthetics. A shipped product and a probed acquisition carry very different degrees of certainty, and they deserve to be weighted separately.
Evonik at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next hard datapoint on the calendar is 3 November 2026, when Evonik publishes third-quarter 2026 results. Until then, takeover speculation and operating performance remain two separate yardsticks — and the political resistance in Düsseldorf is one more variable in a situation that is anything but settled.
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