Evonik's Standalone Bet: A Rejected Bid, a Polymer Launch, and 3,200 Jobs on the Line
Published on 10/08/2026 at 05:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's share price closed Wednesday at EUR 20.86, a whisker away from its 52-week high of EUR 21.04 — and up a striking 56% since the start of the year. That rally rests on two very different pillars: a takeover approach the specialty chemicals group has already turned down, and a self-help programme its management is pressing ahead with regardless of what happens next.
The ownership picture shifted on 30 September, when the RAG-Stiftung signalled it could sell its entire stake in Evonik. Coming roughly a week after BASF confirmed it was exploring a takeover of its Ludwigshafen neighbour, the disclosure gave the stock an extra push; shares have added 2.9% since the BASF news broke. No talks are currently under way between the two chemical companies.
A EUR 22.15 Offer, Deemed Too Low
According to the Financial Times and SĂĽddeutsche Zeitung, BASF submitted a non-binding offer of around EUR 22.15 per share, valuing Evonik at roughly EUR 10.3 billion. The Essen-based group rejected the approach as too low, and no formal negotiations or due diligence have followed. Reuters reported that Evonik dismissed the figure out of hand; both companies declined to comment on the sum.
That price gap now governs everything. For Evonik's boards and the RAG-Stiftung to return to the table, BASF would need to visibly raise its bid. Without a sweeter offer, management in Essen has no basis on which to reassess the situation — leaving the market to watch the spread between the two sides' expectations.
Politics Enters the Fray
Resistance is also building on the political front. On Tuesday, the SPD parliamentary group in North Rhine-Westphalia filed a motion calling on the state government to examine taking a stake in Evonik, with the aim of securing more than 50% plus X of the company alongside the RAG-Stiftung. The state parliament is expected to debate the proposal next week, according to dpa. Representatives of the NRW state government and the FDP responded to the idea with rejection or reserve.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Such a move could signal to BASF that a takeover would run into protracted opposition — raising the odds that the Ludwigshafen group simply walks away.
Self-Help Alongside the Speculation
Whatever BASF decides, Evonik is not standing still. Late last month the group sharpened its growth strategy, a move that has lifted the shares by 5.0% since. The plan assigns binding role profiles to the business units and to its large German production sites, and envisages cutting 3,200 jobs worldwide — around 2,150 of them in Germany — while expanding investment in Asia and the Americas.
International projects are already in motion, including ongoing investments in Canada and Slovakia. On Monday, Evonik also unveiled a biodegradable polymer platform for pharmaceutical excipients, and it plans to launch a new business unit, Designed Polymer Solutions, to cement its position in higher-margin specialty applications while the wider sector grapples with cyclical headwinds.
What the Analysts Say
The mix of M&A speculation and sector dynamics is reflected in recent broker calls. Sebastian Bray of Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" on 5 October, setting a EUR 20 price target and noting that BASF's confirmed interest should provide a floor for the stock even if methionine prices decline. Parmantier & Cie, in a sector study published on 6 October, maintained its "Hold" rating with a six-month target of EUR 20.50.
The Next Hard Data Point
As long as the market prices in the possibility of a revised offer, any pullback is likely to stay modest. Should that expectation collapse — through a definitive rejection from Ludwigshafen or a political blockade — the stock risks returning to a valuation based purely on operating performance.
Clarity on that front arrives on 3 November 2026, when Evonik publishes its interim report for the third quarter of 2026. The figures will show whether the earnings power of the specialty chemicals business can justify the current valuation without an external buyer in the picture.
Ad
Evonik Stock: New Analysis - 8 October
Fresh Evonik information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
