Evonik's Takeover Chess Match Moves to DĂĽsseldorf as Politics Enters the Boardroom
Published on 10/07/2026 at 20:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A bid that Evonik's management quietly waved away last month has now become a problem for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. What began as a routine exploration by BASF has escalated into a three-way standoff involving Germany's largest chemical company, Evonik's anchor shareholder, and a regional government that has no intention of watching the Essen-based specialty chemicals group slip into Ludwigshafen's orbit.
At the center of the storm sits a 10.3 billion euro approach — roughly 22.15 euros per share — that Reuters reported on 28 September had been dismissed by Evonik's leadership as too thin. Neither company has publicly confirmed the figure or any formal rejection, leaving the market to trade on leaks and inference. The silence has done little to cool speculation.
DĂĽsseldorf Draws a Line
On Monday, the state government threw its weight behind Evonik's independence, warning that neither existing jobs nor the company's standalone development should be jeopardized by an outside advance. That political cover arrived just as the opposition SPD faction in the state parliament went a step further, proposing that North Rhine-Westphalia itself take a stake in the specialty chemicals maker. The goal, laid out in a motion filed in the Landtag and set for debate next week, is to block any combination with BASF by assembling a "50 percent plus X" majority alongside the RAG Foundation.
The RAG Foundation holds the pivotal card. As Evonik's largest shareholder, it clarified on 30 September that its statutes do permit a full sale of its Evonik stake — provided the foundation's board approves. It was equally careful to note that no such resolution has been passed and no transaction with BASF has been sanctioned. That distinction matters: the door is legally ajar, but nobody has walked through it.
Should the state genuinely align itself with RAG, a hostile approach — or even one merely opposed by that bloc — becomes effectively impossible. Two competing worlds are colliding here. On one side stands the desire for industrial self-determination and guarantees for the Ruhr region. On the other, capital markets are pricing in the synergy potential of a German chemicals champion. Investors must weigh whether betting on a sweetened offer justifies the risk of a protracted stalemate.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Two Banks, Two Verdicts
The analyst community has responded to the uncertainty by moving in opposite directions. Berenberg's Sebastian Bray upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" on Monday, lifting his price target from 15.50 to 20 euros and citing the downside protection afforded by BASF's interest. Yet Bray flagged falling methionine prices as a headwind that would weigh on the base case absent takeover pressure — a reminder that the floor beneath the stock is built on speculation, not operations.
Deutsche Bank Research's Virginie Boucher-Ferte took a different tack. In a note dated 1 October, she kept her "Hold" rating and an 18-euro target, but penciled in third-quarter EBITDA of 640 million euros. If Evonik can deliver on that operating strength, management's hand at the negotiating table strengthens considerably.
The shares themselves have been caught in the crosscurrents. Evonik traded at 20.94 euros on Tuesday, up 1.7 percent, sitting within striking distance of its 52-week high of 21.04 euros. A day earlier the stock changed hands at 20.90 euros, a gain of 1.5 percent, just shy of what was then a 21.00-euro peak. The premium that has lifted the stock in recent sessions is entirely attributable to BASF's interest — strip that away and the market would revert to valuing Evonik on its operating fundamentals alone.
What Hinges on the Next Two Months
The bull case rests on BASF refusing to be deterred by political noise and returning with a materially improved, binding offer. Evonik's willingness to spurn the initial approach suggests confidence in its own worth. If BASF can bring RAG on board with a convincing premium and credible guarantees, the stock could push decisively through its yearly high.
The bear case is equally straightforward. If state-imposed conditions on a public stake become intolerable for BASF and the Ludwigshafen group walks away, the takeover premium evaporates overnight. Bray's methionine warning would then reassert itself, and the shares could retreat quickly toward pre-speculation levels and the more conservative analyst targets.
Two dates will shape the outcome. The first is next week's Landtag debate on the SPD motion in Düsseldorf, which will signal how far the political resistance is prepared to go. The second is 3 November 2026, when Evonik publishes its third-quarter report and must demonstrate — without any merger fantasy to lean on — just how durable its standalone business really is.
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