Evonik's Takeover Saga Heads to Düsseldorf as Lawmakers Weigh a 50%-Plus Stake
Published on 10/08/2026 at 19:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A regional parliament is about to insert itself into one of Europe's biggest chemical industry courtships. North Rhine-Westphalia's SPD parliamentary group has filed a motion calling on the state government to examine taking a stake in Evonik, with the aim of combining the state's holding with that of the RAG Foundation to exceed 50 percent plus X. The full plenary is expected to take up the proposal next week.
The move adds a political layer to a story that until now had been a straightforward contest between two Ludwigshafen and Essen heavyweights. Roughly a week ago, BASF's interest in acquiring Evonik became public, and the specialty chemicals maker's shares have since added 3.5 percent. According to media reports, Evonik turned down an unsolicited offer of about EUR 22.15 per share as too low — a bid that Reuters valued at EUR 10.3 billion. Both companies and the RAG Foundation declined to comment on those reports at the time.
The stock now trades at EUR 20.98, hovering just beneath its 52-week high of EUR 21.06. Year-to-date, the gain stands at 57 percent. For investors, the question is whether that valuation premium can survive if a better offer fails to materialize — or whether political resistance stalls the process altogether.
The RAG Foundation Holds the Key
At the heart of any deal sits the RAG Foundation, Evonik's anchor shareholder. BASF has confirmed exploratory talks with both the foundation and Evonik, though the outcome remains open. Whether a transaction succeeds or collapses hinges largely on the price the foundation deems adequate for surrendering control.
The operating backdrop, meanwhile, counsels caution. Berenberg analyst Sebastian Bray upgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Sell" on October 5, lifting his price target to EUR 20.00 from EUR 15.50. Bray noted that takeover speculation is propping up the shares even as the core business faces pressure from falling prices for methionine, an animal feed additive. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. reaffirmed its hold rating with a EUR 20.50 target.
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That gap between industrial reality and shareholder expectations defines the current standoff. Should management choose to defend Evonik's independence, it will need to demonstrate that its own restructuring creates more value than a merger would.
A Raised Bid Could Break the Deadlock
The optimistic case rests on the persistent consolidation pressure across the European chemicals sector. To overcome resistance from management and the foundation, BASF would likely need to sweeten its offer substantially. Market observers view the reported EUR 22.15 per share as little more than an opening bid.
Evonik, for its part, is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. Roughly a week ago the company sharpened its growth strategy, sending the shares up 5.6 percent since. The plan calls for structuring the portfolio more clearly around role profiles and cutting 3,200 jobs worldwide, including about 2,150 in Germany. Two smaller German production and technology sites are slated to close next year. If the executive board can sustainably secure the earnings power of its six major German production sites, its leverage in negotiations with any bidder rises.
The company is also betting on specialty applications, such as a biodegradable polymer platform for oral drug delivery announced on October 5. Greater synergies and sharper specialization could tempt BASF into tabling a significantly improved offer.
The Risk of a Deal That Never Closes
Set against that is the real danger of an abrupt end to the talks. If the takeover collapses over political objections, or if a lasting blockade forms in the state parliament, BASF could walk away from further approaches. Officially, no talks are currently taking place between the two companies.
In that scenario, the takeover premium would drain out of the valuation. Without the safety net of a bid, the stock would have to be priced purely on operating fundamentals. Weaker product prices and persistent margin pressure in the chemicals cycle could then trigger rapid corrections, given that the recent rally was driven largely by takeover speculation.
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The job cuts add another burden, with restructuring costs likely to weigh on results in coming quarters. If tangible earnings improvements in the core business fail to appear, the shares risk sliding back toward summer valuation levels.
A Binary Setup Into November
For market participants, the risk profile has become binary. As long as speculation about an improved BASF offer dominates trading, the price level should remain supported. If BASF confirms a full retreat, or if North Rhine-Westphalia secures a blocking minority, a downward re-rating looms.
The next fundamental milestone is already set. On November 3, 2026, Evonik will publish its quarterly statement for the third quarter of 2026. By then it will be clear whether fresh negotiation rounds are reported — or whether operating numbers once again take the lead in steering the share price.
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