Evonik's Union Chief Challenges RAG Foundation as BASF Bid Hangs Over the Chemicals Maker
Published on 10/08/2026 at 18:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's largest shareholder is coming under mounting pressure to clarify its long-term intentions, with IG BCE boss Michael Vassiliadis questioning whether the RAG Foundation should exit the specialty chemicals group at all. In an internal letter to works council representatives at both Evonik and BASF, the union leader demanded swift answers from the foundation about its plans, pushing back against the idea of a full withdrawal.
The intervention lands in the middle of a broader political argument in North Rhine-Westphalia over Evonik's ownership structure. The RAG Foundation holds a substantial stake in the Essen-based company, using the proceeds to fund the perpetual liabilities left behind by German hard-coal mining. State politicians have staked out opposing positions on preserving Evonik's independence: economy minister Mona Neubaur spoke of close dialogue between the state and the company, while the FDP parliamentary group in Düsseldorf rejected any state participation outright.
A Rejected Approach Sets the Tone
Those ownership debates follow BASF's takeover interest, which surfaced just over a week ago and has lifted the stock by 3.8 percent since. Evonik confirmed at the time that it had received an unsolicited approach from the Ludwigshafen-based group for all of its shares, while stressing that no negotiations were underway. According to Reuters, Evonik turned down an initial offer of EUR 10.3 billion, or roughly EUR 22.15 per share, as too low.
The stock has stayed elevated on the back of that speculation. In today's session, Evonik shares climbed 1.0 percent to EUR 21.06, leaving the paper just below its 52-week high of EUR 21.26. Analysts at Berenberg upgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Hold" on 6 October, lifting their price target from EUR 15.50 to EUR 20. The bank argued that BASF's interest provides a floor under the share price.
Berenberg analyst Sebastian Bray tied the higher target to the merger discussions, saying they could form a reliable price floor even if methionine prices decline. On Tuesday, Parmantier & Cie followed with a hold recommendation in its sector report.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Two Paths for the Share Price
For investors, the central question is whether the current valuation rests on a durable foundation or mainly on takeover speculation. The recent advance did not stem from a sudden surge in demand in the core business, but from the disclosure of strategic soundings. If methionine prices weaken later in the year, that would weigh directly on segment margins — and if the external support fades at the same time, a revaluation based purely on operating metrics becomes the logical outcome.
The upside scenario looks different. BASF CEO Markus Kamieth reaffirmed his company's appetite for acquisitions on Monday, saying a combination with a strong specialty chemicals player like Evonik makes strategic sense. A sweetened offer from Ludwigshafen would likely exceed the rejected EUR 22.15 level and give the shares further momentum.
That narrative is reinforced by internal progress in promising product areas. Evonik is developing a biodegradable polymer platform for future EUDRAGIT excipients used in oral drug delivery. Initial non-commercial laboratory quantities are already available for joint projects with partners — work that underscores the technological value of the specialty chemicals portfolio and could strengthen management's hand in any negotiations.
What Could Go Wrong
The key downside risk is a complete breakdown of the exploratory talks. BASF described its approach as non-binding and explicitly left both the continuation and the outcome open. If the two boards fail to agree on an adequate premium, the takeover speculation would likely drain out of the stock quickly, leaving the price exposed to a tough industry environment. Political initiatives aimed at blocking a deal could complicate a transaction further.
Should talks stall, the cyclical burdens on the European chemicals industry would move back to center stage. Falling product prices combined with persistent cost pressure would make a significant pullback the natural consequence.
The Next Hard Data Point
The picture for shareholders comes down to a fairly clear guide: as long as takeover talks remain alive and the stock holds around Berenberg's EUR 20 target, the downside looks well protected. If BASF's willingness to negotiate fades, the recent premium is likely to be given back.
The next opportunity for a fundamental reassessment arrives in a few weeks. Evonik has scheduled the release of its third-quarter 2026 results for 3 November 2026. That report will show how demand in the MDAX group's core markets has developed — and whether operating earnings can justify the current valuation premium without a takeover.
Ad
Evonik Stock: New Analysis - 8 October
Fresh Evonik information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
