Gold Clings to Gains as Sticky Import Prices Collide With Record Fund Holdings
Published on 10/19/2026 at 11:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold edged higher on Monday even as traders kept pricing in further US rate hikes, with the metal drawing support from softer oil prices while a fresh inflation signal complicated the policy outlook. The spot price held at 4,184.90 USD per troy ounce in early Asian trading, a modest advance that nonetheless left the broader picture clouded.
Money markets are assigning a 16% probability to an October rate move and a 92% chance to one in December, according to Reuters. That pricing sits uneasily alongside September import prices that came in hotter than expected — a reminder that price pressure has yet to ease and that hopes for a less restrictive Fed remain premature.
A Forecast That Cuts Both Ways
Bank of America added its own note of caution on Thursday. Its analysts pencilled in an average price of 4,000 USD per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026, while flagging that gold may struggle to hold that level over the following three months. The call is a projection rather than an observed move, but it underscores how much restraint still surrounds longer-run expectations even after the latest uptick.
The next hard tests are already circled. The Federal Reserve decides on rates on 28 October, following its 27–28 October meeting, and September PCE inflation data land on 29 October. Whether those releases validate or deflate the current rate expectations will shape gold's near-term path more than any single session's trading.
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Funds Keep Piling In
Against that monetary backdrop, demand data tell a sturdier story. Physically backed gold ETFs took in 67.3 tonnes in September, worth close to 10 billion USD, pushing worldwide holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes, the World Gold Council reported. The Council noted on 12 October that European and US investors kept adding exposure despite recent price weakness, citing concerns over the sustainability of sovereign debt and rising risk premiums.
China's fund market echoed the trend. Chinese gold ETFs drew 11 tonnes last month, the third consecutive month of inflows, lifting their holdings to a record 304 tonnes.
Official Buying Adds a Second Pillar
Central banks have been buying too. Preliminary World Gold Council figures cited by the Financial Times on Thursday pointed to net purchases of roughly 63 tonnes in September — the strongest monthly tally since November 2024. The People's Bank of China alone added 23 tonnes, according to Council data released Friday, raising its official reserves to 2,410 tonnes.
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Not every corner of Chinese demand kept pace. Wholesale demand ran 21% below year-earlier levels in the third quarter, a reminder that the official and fund buying cannot be read as a broad-based surge in consumption.
For investors, the ledger cuts two ways. Documented purchases argue for durable interest in bullion, yet they do nothing to resolve the policy uncertainty hanging over the market. With the Fed decision and PCE data fast approaching, demand trends provide the backdrop — not the answer.
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