Gold Forecasts Split by Horizon as Fed, Oil and Chinese Demand Set the Near-Term Test
Published on 10/27/2026 at 19:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold strategists are pulling in their targets for this year while nudging them higher for the next, a Reuters poll published today shows — a divergence that says more about the market's time horizons than about any single view of the metal.
The median forecast for 2026 now sits at $4,495 an ounce, down from $4,509 in the previous survey and the second consecutive cut. For 2027, by contrast, the median has been raised to $4,650 from $4,610.
That combination — a trim this year, an upgrade next — captures the tug-of-war in the market. On one side sit lofty US Treasury yields, a firm dollar and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer. On the other, central bank buying and physical demand from Asia are providing a cushion.
A question of timing, not direction
The poll's respondents were careful to separate the two. A softer call on the current year does not mean they have turned bearish on the longer run, and the higher 2027 figure is a survey expectation rather than a guaranteed price level. For investors the distinction matters: an upgraded annual forecast says nothing about how bullion will react to the next rate decision.
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The immediate backdrop is dominated by inflation, yields and the dollar. Oil has proved a live transmission channel between them. Reuters reported on Friday the sharpest weekly loss since June, after rising crude prices had stoked inflation worries and fed expectations of a US rate hike. Yesterday the same link worked in reverse — cheaper oil eased those inflation fears and helped the metal recover. Today the news agency again reported a rebound ahead of the rate decision.
Fed meeting and PCE data in focus
The Federal Reserve's rate decision and press conference are due on 28 October, with US PCE inflation data following on 29 October. According to yesterday's Reuters report, market participants largely expect no change at this meeting. A possible December hike has nonetheless remained a talking point, which is why the follow-through in policy guidance — not just the immediate verdict — should matter for gold. The inflation figures that follow can shift those expectations again.
Commerzbank analysts Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch underlined how difficult the environment remains. Gold has come under pressure despite lower US rate expectations and falling real yields, they noted today, and turbulence in the French bond market has so far failed to spark safe-haven demand for the metal. Support from developments that would normally help it is therefore absent. The analysts see a Fed hike this week as very unlikely, and in their view a limited surprise from the central bank could only produce a limited reaction in gold.
The price action offers no clear recovery signal either. At $4,047.99 an ounce, the spot close remains in territory that analysts describe as shaped by dollar strength and rate uncertainty.
Official buyers offset the drag
Against that monetary pressure stands demand from China. The World Gold Council reported on 15 October that the Chinese central bank added 23 tonnes of gold in September, taking third-quarter purchases to 63 tonnes. The council also flagged improved Chinese jewellery, bar and coin demand around the holidays at the end of September and in early October, with buying on price dips supporting the trend. Reuters likewise cites central bank purchases and physical demand from India and China as props.
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Roukaya Ibrahim of BCA Research sees a possible rebound in the coming weeks after excessive selling, though her view is explicitly cautious. Persistent inflation and a restrictive Fed could cap the upside, she argues, and the dollar is likely to stay strong through year-end.
None of this contradicts the poll. A short-term bounce can stay limited while longer-run expectations rise, with official-sector and physical buying acting as the counterweight to monetary policy. The takeaway for gold investors is a cautiously constructive one — but not yet confirmation that the correction is over. The next test comes from the Fed's messaging and the inflation data that follows it.
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