Gold Rally Gains Fuel From Cooler Inflation, Rate Bets and Hormuz Tension
Published on 08/12/2026 at 18:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.deGold extended its advance on Wednesday, rising to 4,481 US-Dollar je Feinunze, up 1,2 Prozent from the previous day and close to a Zehn-Wochen-Hoch. The move came after a turbulent stretch in which the metal crossed 4.400 US-Dollar and logged a weekly gain of more than seven percent, as investors reassessed both US monetary policy and geopolitical risk.
The immediate catalyst was a softer-than-expected US labor backdrop. The July jobs report showed that the US economy shed 23.000 Stellen, while economists had been looking for an increase. That surprise sharply reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and helped push gold to 4.409,93 US-Dollar on Wednesday morning after Monday’s 1,11 Prozent gain to 4.401,25 US-Dollar, the strongest start to a week since January.
Inflation data added to that shift in sentiment. For July, economists had expected the annual US consumer price index to rise to 3,4 Prozent. Instead, prices came in broadly in line with forecasts, easing fears of an imminent rate increase. Together with the weak employment report from the prior week, the CPI reading prompted investors to scale back bets on a September hike.
Lower rate expectations matter because they affect the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Jefferies said the real yield on 10-year US inflation-linked Treasuries has climbed to around 2,41 Prozent since the start of the year, a move that had weighed on gold in the first half of 2026. With the latest data pointing to less aggressive policy ahead, that pressure has eased.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Geopolitics is providing a second layer of support. Markets are watching the Strait of Hormuz, where conflicting statements have added to uncertainty. Pakistan’s defence minister said the US and Iran were “nahe an einer Art Vereinbarung” to reopen the waterway, while President Donald Trump said the US already had “vollständige Kontrolle” over it. Separate reports of fresh tensions in the region have also helped lift oil prices and reinforce demand for safe-haven assets.
Central-bank buying continues to underpin the market as well. China’s central bank increased its gold reserves by about 20 Tonnen in July, extending a buying streak to 21 months. Globally, central banks are estimated to have purchased 289 Tonnen in the second quarter, a flow that supports the metal even when short-term macro data turns less favourable.
Technically, the picture has improved too. The break above 4.300 US-Dollar sharpened the chart outlook, and analysts at XTB see the next target at the 200-day moving average of about 4.505,80 US-Dollar. Harshal Barot of Metals Focus, meanwhile, said on 10. August that gold could reach between 4.800 and 5.000 US-Dollar per ounce by the end of 2026, although he still described the long-term technical setup as challenging. Gold remains about 20 Prozent below its 52-Wochen-Hoch of 5.586,20 Dollar from late January, when it briefly traded at nearly 5.600 US-Dollar.
Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
With the CPI release now behind it, traders are left weighing three forces at once: Federal Reserve expectations, the evolving situation around Hormuz and persistent central-bank demand.
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