Gold's Official-Sector Anchor Holds While Forecasters Rethink the Ceiling
Published on 11/06/2026 at 15:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold gave back part of its post-midterm gains on Wednesday, with the spot price settling at 4,031.13 USD per troy ounce as a firmer dollar and renewed inflation worries weighed on the metal. The pullback came just a day after bullion had closed at 4,088.36 USD, capping a 5.5% advance over seven sessions that underlined how sharply the market had rebounded from October's selloff.
The retreat is a reminder of how much of gold's short-term direction still rests with the currency and bond markets rather than with physical demand. A weaker dollar and falling US Treasury yields had powered the rally after the Democrats' midterm success, as investors bet on tighter constraints on Trump's spending and borrowing plans. Reuters also pointed to shifting expectations around US fiscal policy. Those tailwinds have now faded, and dollar strength combined with bets on prolonged high US rates is doing the opposite work.
Exchange-traded funds keep pulling in money
Beneath the day-to-day noise, the demand picture is more nuanced than a single headline suggests. Gold ETFs attracted 2.7 billion USD in October, lifting their holdings by 19 tonnes to 4,275 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. European funds led the inflows, providing a meaningful impulse from the fund segment even as other buyer groups hold back.
The contrast is starkest in bars and coins. Global demand for those products fell 19% year on year in the third quarter of 2026 to 268 tonnes, with the WGC noting that private investors were waiting for a clearer price trend. That divergence complicates any simple narrative of uniformly strong investment appetite.
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On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the industry body had halved its full-year growth forecast for gold investment demand to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes previously, citing the weaker bar and coin figures.
Official buyers pick up the slack
Central banks remain the market's dependable backbone. The WGC estimated that purchases by central banks and other official institutions reached 321 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, a 42% jump from the same period a year earlier. That estimate includes unreported buying, a distinction the council draws deliberately when framing official-sector demand.
Wednesday's monthly statistics showed reported net purchases of 61 tonnes in September, the highest monthly reading of 2026 to that point. Poland and China led the buying, with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic among the other net purchasers — a demand base spread across a number of countries rather than concentrated in one.
The council also raised its full-year expectation for central bank demand, leaving its view of official buyers more constructive than its outlook for investment growth.
Strategists see a sideways stretch ahead
Not everyone is convinced the rebound has legs. In commentary published Wednesday, BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim described gold as technically oversold after October's slump and identified 4,000 USD per troy ounce as critical support. She nonetheless expects a sideways phase first, with inflation and monetary policy likely to provide headwinds.
Ibrahim anticipates a relatively strong dollar through the end of 2026, with a more favourable macroeconomic backdrop possible in early 2027 should the dollar and inflation ease. Central bank buying, in her view, is a support, while private investment demand could become the larger catalyst. She and her colleagues also warn of near-term selling pressure from margin calls and the unwinding of leveraged positions if equity markets fall further, though long-term private investors and central banks remain important anchors.
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Goldman Sachs cut its end-2027 forecast to 4,800 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday, down from 5,400 USD, citing the US central bank's more restrictive stance.
Payrolls data is the next test
The US jobs report due later today looms as the next key checkpoint for rate expectations. The Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC expects 59,000 nonfarm payroll additions for October, down from 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.2%.
Softer hiring and wage figures could dampen expectations of further tightening and give the gold recovery room to run. Robust numbers, by contrast, would bolster rate-hike expectations and the dollar. Whether the relief on inflation, yields and the currency holds is what will decide if the countermove has staying power — or whether the metal simply settles into the range BCA's strategist foresees.
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