Gold's Recovery Has a Solid Foundation — But the Chart Points to a Pause
Published on 08/13/2026 at 05:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gold market has spent the past month climbing out of a hole, and Wednesday's session brought the clearest confirmation yet that the rebound has legs. Spot bullion closed at $4,478.80 per ounce, up 1.2 percent on the day and its strongest finish in roughly ten weeks. The move above the $4,400 threshold marks a milestone that had looked distant just a month ago, when the metal was mired in its deepest slump since the start of the year.
What changed? The answer lies in the latest US inflation snapshot, which landed almost exactly where forecasters had penciled it in. July's consumer price index rose 0.1 percent month over month and 3.4 percent year over year, while the core gauge advanced 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. For gold traders, the significance was immediate: the numbers did nothing to revive the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the implied probability of a move has slipped from roughly 46 percent to about 40 percent — a shift that removes a heavy weight from the precious metal's shoulders.
The 30-day arithmetic tells the story more vividly. Gold has gained a full 10 percent over that stretch, a pace that reflects how powerfully rate-cut speculation has reasserted itself. But the rally has also brought the market to a technical crossroads. The metal now trades about 7.4 percent above its 50-day moving average, a gap that strategists at Bespoke Investment Group read as a sign of short-term overheating. The relative strength index sits at 68.9, just shy of the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions. And at $4,541, the 200-day average remains a stubborn ceiling — gold is still 1.4 percent below that level, and roughly 20 percent off the record high set in January.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
None of that diminishes the fundamental picture, which has broadened considerably over the past quarter. Central banks continue to provide a powerful floor under the market. China's central bank added roughly 640,000 ounces to its reserves in July, marking the 21st consecutive month of accumulation. The World Gold Council puts total central bank buying in the second quarter at 289 tonnes, a 62 percent jump from the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, physically backed gold ETFs in Europe have started attracting inflows again, a sign that institutional investors are returning to the asset after a prolonged absence. That combination — official-sector accumulation plus renewed fund demand — gives the rally a foundation that extends well beyond interest-rate speculation.
The bond market has reinforced the shift in expectations. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries eased three basis points to 4.668 percent after the inflation data, while two-year yields slipped nearly five basis points. Falling real yields, which have climbed from 1.94 percent to around 2.41 percent since the start of the year, traditionally provide a tailwind for a metal that pays no income. Analysts at Jefferies and BCA Research argue that much of that repricing is now behind us, which would remove a persistent headwind for gold.
There are, of course, risks that could interrupt the recovery. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, remain a wildcard that could reverse the upward move abruptly. Thursday's producer price index and weekly jobless claims figures will also offer fresh clues about the Fed's likely course. For now, the consensus view is that any pullback from current levels would represent a buying opportunity rather than the start of a new downtrend — the structural bid from central banks and the improving rate outlook both argue that the worst of the pressure on gold is over.
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Gold Stock: New Analysis - 13 August
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
