Gold Slips 0.9% to $4,140 as Weak US Payrolls Fail to Sustain a Rally
Published on 10/02/2026 at 20:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A sharply weaker-than-expected US employment report briefly jolted commodity markets on Friday, yet the lift it gave gold proved fleeting. The metal ended the session down 0.9% at $4,140.02 an ounce, having spiked immediately after the data before surrendering those gains.
September payrolls outside the farm sector rose by just 29,000, well short of what economists had anticipated, while the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. The cooling in the labor market quickly reshaped rate expectations: futures markets slashed the odds of another Federal Reserve hike at the end of October, with participants increasingly positioning for an extended pause instead.
That dovish shift ought to have been rocket fuel for a metal that pays no yield. It wasn't. Treasury yields retreated right after the release, then reversed course and pushed back into positive territory as the day wore on — and it was that rebound in yields, rather than any change in the growth outlook, that pulled gold off its intraday high. Persistently elevated yields continue to dull the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.
Official-Sector Buying Provides a Structural Cushion
Beneath the day-to-day noise, analysts point to demand that has little to do with the rate cycle. Daniel Ghali, metals analyst at Deutsche Bank, flagged the metal's striking resilience in a high-rate environment, noting that official-sector purchases are running at more than double their 2021 pace. The pool of institutional gold investors, he added, has expanded by roughly 70% since then.
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Central banks have been the backbone of that trend. The World Gold Council reported that official institutions bought 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026. Global mine output rose 2% year-on-year over the same three months to 966 tonnes, while gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded outflows of 44.8 tonnes.
Reuters has described the resulting dynamic as a structural demand premium that has been in place since 2022, one that keeps gold supported above the $4,000 mark even when US Treasury yields climb. Should the Fed's tightening cycle finally run its course, that cushion could open the door to further gains.
The split in behavior is telling. Speculative players trade the latest data print, while sovereign buyers build reserves against geopolitical and economic risk over a far longer horizon.
Banks Trim Their Longer-Run Targets
Not everyone is convinced the near-term path leads higher. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,490 an ounce, citing rising bond yields and a periodically firm dollar as factors capping the metal's potential while monetary policy stays restrictive.
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute took a similar tack on September 30, cutting its end-2027 target to a range of $5,200 to $5,400 an ounce from $5,400 to $5,600 previously. The institute explicitly tied the revision to persistently higher interest rates and a generally stronger US dollar.
Fed Minutes and CPI Loom
Attention now turns to two US data points that could reset the rate debate. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting land on October 7 and should offer granular detail on how policymakers are weighing the recent run of softer data. September's consumer price index follows on October 14, giving investors a fresh read on the inflation dynamics that will shape the next move in rates — and, by extension, the next move in gold.
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