Goldman Cuts Gold Forecasts as Hawkish Fed Talk Tests Central Bank Demand
Published on 11/12/2026 at 08:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs has trimmed its gold price targets, citing a more restrictive Federal Reserve, even as official-sector buyers keep adding to their reserves. The investment bank now sees the metal at $4,150 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, down from a prior call of $4,650, and cut its end-2027 projection to $4,800 from $5,400. Goldman expects tighter Fed policy to weigh on investment demand, while still viewing structural central bank buying as a longer-term support.
The downgrade landed on Monday, the same day fresh inflation data and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve combined to strengthen the dollar and reinforce expectations of a larger rate hike in December. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from the previous month, according to Reuters, topping the 0.3% economists had forecast. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said before the release that an overly high core inflation reading could justify a bigger move for him.
That prospect has been pressing on the non-yielding metal. Spot gold closed at $3,985.87 an ounce, while the prior session's close came in at $3,984.30 — a retreat to a multi-week low, as Reuters reported. The next US rate decision is scheduled for 9 December 2026, and Waller has explicitly tied any larger hike to whether inflation stays elevated. A US employment report due 4 December 2026 now looms as the next potential catalyst before the Fed meets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Official Buyers Keep Stacking
Against that rate-driven headwind, central banks continue to build positions. China's central bank extended its buying streak to a 24th consecutive month, official data published Saturday showed. October holdings rose to 78.3 million troy ounces, an increase of roughly 25.8 tonnes.
The World Gold Council put global net central bank purchases at 61 tonnes in September, the highest monthly total of 2026 to that point, led by Poland and China. For the third quarter of 2026, central banks and other official institutions bought a net 321 tonnes — 42% more than in the same quarter a year earlier.
The longer-run picture is more muted. Net purchases reported from January through September totaled 228 tonnes, 7% below the prior-year period. Total worldwide gold demand in the third quarter of 2026 came to 1,369 tonnes, down 1% year on year, meaning the stronger official buying coincided with a slight decline in overall demand.
For investors, the balance is straightforward: central bank purchases underpin the demand side, while US rate expectations and dollar strength set the near-term price direction. Until that headwind eases, Chinese and other official buying has not been enough to offset it — and the next US inflation signals will decide whether the pressure builds or breaks.
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