Goldman Slashes Gold Targets as Hawkish Fed Talk Collides With Central Bank Buying
Published on 11/13/2026 at 12:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold is grinding out a modest recovery, but the metal's path of least resistance still points lower. Prices added 0.6% to $3,899.07 an ounce, a day after settling at $3,874.31 — a single-session drop of 2.8% that at one stage pushed bullion to its weakest level since October 2025. Reuters reports the rebound leaves the metal on course for a weekly loss.
The catalyst for the sell-off was a hardening view on the Middle East. President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, dpa-AFX reported, dimming hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Crude prices rose in response, feeding inflation worries and, by extension, expectations that US borrowing costs stay higher for longer.
A Dollar at 19-Month Highs Turns the Screw
Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday cemented market expectations of a December rate hike, and the US dollar climbed to a 19-month high. The combination weighed heavily on the precious metal. Tuesday's consumer price data offered little comfort either: the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% in October, down from 0.6% in September, yet Reuters noted the reading still came in above forecasts, reinforcing the rate narrative.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Goldman Sachs moved quickly to reprice the outlook. On 7 November the bank cut its year-end targets, citing the Fed's more restrictive stance and expected rate increases. Its end-2026 forecast fell to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650, while the end-2027 target was trimmed to $4,800 from $5,400 — the same tightening backdrop driving both revisions.
Official Buyers Keep the Floor Intact
Set against that pressure, central banks are still adding to reserves. World Gold Council data published on 3 November showed official institutions bought a net 321 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, a 42% jump on the year-earlier period. Total gold demand including over-the-counter transactions reached 1,369 tonnes, 1% below the prior year, as heavier official purchases offset weaker appetite for jewellery, bars and coins.
That split demand picture leaves the market finely balanced. Institutional buying underpins the longer-term case, but the near-term direction remains hostage to crude prices, the dollar and Fed expectations. Until that trio eases, rallies like today's look more like a pause than a turning point.
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