Goldman Trims Gold Targets as Central Bank Buying Collides With a Hawkish Fed
Published on 11/12/2026 at 05:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs cut its gold forecasts on Monday, citing the Federal Reserve's tighter policy stance, with the bank now expecting the metal at $4,150 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 — down from a prior call of $4,650. Its end-2027 target was trimmed to $4,800 from $5,400. Goldman still views structural central bank demand as a long-term support, but warns that investment appetite will feel the pinch of higher rates.
The downgrade lands as gold trades at a spot close of $3,985.87 an ounce, a level that shows persistent official-sector purchases have yet to overpower the monetary policy headwind.
China Extends Its Buying Streak
Official data released Saturday showed the People's Bank of China adding to its reserves for a 24th consecutive month. October holdings rose to 78.3 million fine ounces, an increase of roughly 25.8 tonnes. The World Gold Council put global central bank net purchases at 61 tonnes in September — the highest monthly total of 2026 to that point — with Poland and China leading the field.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
The longer-run picture is less buoyant. Net purchases reported for January through September totaled 228 tonnes, 7% below the same period a year earlier. The World Gold Council had reported on November 3 that third-quarter net official buying reached 321 tonnes, 42% more than in the year-earlier quarter, so the recent momentum and the year-to-date shortfall tell different stories.
ETF Flows Diverge by Region
Global gold ETFs pulled in $2.7 billion in October, according to World Gold Council data published November 5, lifting holdings by 19 tonnes to a month-end record of 4,275 tonnes. India moved the other way: Reuters reported a 22% drop in net Indian investment to 34.74 billion rupees, though domestic fund houses had capped fresh subscriptions and larger purchases ahead of the festive season — a constraint that must be weighed before reading the decline as a demand signal.
Inflation Surprise Hardens Rate Bets
US consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month in October, above the 0.3% economists polled by Reuters had expected. Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve reinforced expectations of a December rate hike, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said before the release that an overly high core inflation reading could justify a larger move. The prospect weighed on the dollar and on investment demand, overshadowing support from state buyers.
The next test arrives November 13, when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October producer prices. A US employment report scheduled for 04.12.2026, ahead of the Fed's December decision, could supply the following catalyst. Until the rate side eases, Chinese purchases remain a demand pillar while US monetary policy sets the near-term headwind.
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