ITM Power's £144 Million Backlog Meets a £20 Million Loss Forecast
Published on 10/31/2026 at 03:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ITM Power has spent the past year proving it can grow. The harder question, as the company's shares slipped 7.6% in a single session, is whether that growth can be converted into cash before the patience of investors runs out.
The Sheffield-based electrolyser maker reported record revenue of £43.6 million for fiscal 2026 on 19 October — a jump of 68% — while narrowing its adjusted EBITDA loss to £20.2 million. Those headline numbers tell a story of momentum. Peel Hunt's decision three days later to trim its price target from 92 pence to 88 pence tells a more cautious one. The broker flagged the risk posed by the timelines of hydrogen projects, arguing that fiscal 2027 will be defined less by demand than by execution and the conversion of orders into revenue.
That distinction matters because ITM Power's guidance for the coming year already assumes both. Management projects revenue of £50 million to £60 million for fiscal 2027, alongside an adjusted EBITDA loss of £17 million to £20 million. Even if the top end of the sales range is hit, the company does not expect to cross into positive adjusted EBITDA territory — a reminder that operational progress and self-sustaining profitability are not the same thing.
An Order Book That Flatters — and a Clock That Doesn't
At the close of the fiscal year, ITM Power's order backlog stood at £144.0 million, of which 83% was described as profitable. On paper, that provides a credible foundation for the growth story: if the orders are delivered, both revenue and the quality of earnings should improve.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The caveat is timing. A backlog is only as valuable as the schedule behind it, and it is precisely that link between project planning and revenue recognition that Peel Hunt's note called into question. The broker's framing — that fiscal 2027 is a year of delivery rather than order intake — shifts the bar for investors. Fresh project announcements would be welcome, but they cannot paper over delays in converting existing agreements into sales.
The balance sheet adds a further dimension to the test. ITM Power ended the year with £215.6 million in liquid resources and expects that figure to fall to between £170 million and £180 million over the next twelve months. Rising revenue, continued losses and a declining cash position are a combination that leaves little room for slippage.
A 150MW Refinery Project and the Long Road to 2029
The clearest illustration of the execution challenge sits with Hydropulse, ITM Power's subsidiary. On 12 October it signed heads of terms with a European oil refinery for a planned green hydrogen project with 150 MW of capacity. Joint technical pre-planning is already underway, and a final investment decision is targeted for 2027, with production expected in 2029 under a planned ten-year contract.
That is a tangible step forward — but only a step. The heads of terms are not a final investment decision, and the project's timeline stretches well beyond the immediate operational proving ground. For the bullish case to hold, preliminary agreements of this kind must mature into firm projects, while the existing business delivers the near-term evidence.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Next Marker on the Calendar
ITM Power published its annual report on Tuesday and convened a general meeting, set for 13 November 2026 in Sheffield. Between now and then, the yardstick for shareholders remains unchanged: not the scale of announced opportunities, but their translation into revenue alongside controlled losses.
If key projects slip, the more cautious reading gains weight, and the backlog will need to be reassessed for its near-term impact. If delivery stays on track and results land within guidance, the company's own targets will continue to underpin the positive case. The shares' recent weakness sharpens that test without answering the operational question behind it.
Ad
ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 31 October
Fresh ITM Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
