ITM Power's 150MW Refinery Is Still a Handshake, Not a Contract
Published on 10/31/2026 at 15:12 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A 10% slide in a single session tends to invite a hunt for a culprit. For ITM Power, no company-specific trigger has been identified behind the move — which makes it all the more important to separate the share price's daily noise from the pace of the underlying business.
That distinction matters most when a company's pipeline is measured in megawatts rather than signed purchase orders. Take the project announced by subsidiary Hydropulse. On 12 October, ITM Power disclosed the outline terms of an arrangement with a European oil refinery covering a 150 MW green hydrogen facility, with the proposed agreement set to run for ten years.
Ten years sounds like a durable revenue stream. It is not yet a project. Binding contracts and a final investment decision remain outstanding, and anyone treating the planned capacity as booked business has skipped the part of the story that actually decides the outcome. The parties are working through technical front-end planning, with the final investment decision targeted for 2027 and production expected in 2029. That timeline makes the venture strategically interesting; it does not make it near-term revenue.
The Numbers That Carry More Weight
Harder evidence arrived on 19 October with preliminary results for fiscal 2026, ended 30 April. Revenue came in at £43.6 million, against an adjusted EBITDA loss of £20.2 million. Both figures improved year on year, according to the company.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The order backlog stood at £144.0 million at the fiscal year-end, while liquid resources reached £215.6 million. Those two figures answer different questions and should not be conflated: the backlog describes the potential already under contract, the cash describes how much room the company has to convert it. Neither is a substitute for realised revenue.
Guidance for fiscal 2027 points to revenue of £50 million to £60 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of £17 million to £20 million. The company also expects its cash position to land between £170 million and £180 million — below the level reported at the close of fiscal 2026. Growth is forecast; a positive adjusted EBITDA is not.
Peel Hunt Trims Its Target
Analyst reaction has followed the slower project cadence. On 22 October, Peel Hunt cut its price target to 88 pence from 92 pence, according to media reports, citing hydrogen project schedules running behind expectations and framing the coming fiscal year as a period of execution and order conversion rather than demand. The reasoning carries more weight than the target itself: an order on the books offers no protection against the timing of its economic impact shifting to the right.
Housekeeping, Not a Verdict
Governance news deserves the same cool reading. On 22 October, ITM Power disclosed that CEO Dennis Schulz had exercised options and sold part of the resulting shares to cover tax liabilities, retaining the remainder. That is a tax-driven transaction, not a blanket vote of no confidence — and equally, no evidence that operating risks have shrunk.
Shareholders will get their next formal say at the general meeting scheduled for 13 November 2026 in Sheffield. The calendar is a marker, not proof of progress.
The investment case here rests on a simple test: converting a £144.0 million backlog into revenue while narrowing losses toward the £17 million to £20 million range now guided. The 150MW refinery belongs in the category of conditional future prospects until the signature arrives. ITM Power's hydrogen story will be judged not by the scale of its largest announced plant, but by demonstrable delivery.
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