ITM Power's 2029 Horizon: A 150MW Refinery Deal, a Trimmed Loss Forecast, and the Long Wait for Revenue
Published on 10/18/2026 at 06:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ITM Power heads into its preliminary annual results on Monday with a share price up 51% since the start of the year — a rally built on cost discipline and strategic intent rather than signed contracts. The stock closed Friday at EUR 1.09, a gain of 2.1%, with no single catalyst behind the move.
The British electrolyser specialist now sits at a crossroads. Management has tightened its loss guidance and shown restraint on shareholder dilution, but the revenue-generating projects that underpin the valuation remain years from first production.
A 150MW Refinery Deal — With a Long Runway
On 12 October, subsidiary Hydropulse signed a heads of terms agreement with an unnamed European oil refinery for a planned 150MW green hydrogen project. The deal envisages ITM's Alpha platform under a ten-year offtake and operating arrangement.
The refinery partner has not been named, and the agreement is a non-binding framework — not a final investment decision. The parties are now progressing a FEED study for technical planning. A final investment decision is targeted for 2027, with actual hydrogen production not expected before 2029.
For investors, the legal nature of the agreement matters. There is no binding construction obligation and no definitive supply and operating contract. Delays and subsequent adjustments are common in large industrial projects, and the market has grown increasingly sober in its assessment of such announcements.
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Cost Control Delivers a 27% Improvement
While revenue from new large-scale plants remains years away, ITM Power has made progress on cost discipline. Roughly two weeks ago, management narrowed its adjusted EBITDA loss guidance for the financial year ending 30 April 2026 to between GBP 20 million and GBP 21 million.
That represents an improvement of around 27% on previous expectations and a marked reduction on the prior year. Revenue and cash guidance were left unchanged.
The figures show genuine progress on internal cost control. But the bottom line remains an operating loss, and the company has yet to demonstrate binding order momentum.
Shareholder-Friendly Signal on Equity Issuance
A further signal came on Friday, ahead of the annual general meeting on 30 October. ITM Power revised resolution 11b concerning authorisation to issue equity securities, cutting the maximum aggregate nominal amount to GBP 23,046,852 from the originally proposed GBP 34,570,278.
The move deserves credit. Management is signalling that future dilution of existing capital will be kept within tighter limits — an important confidence signal in a capital-intensive sector such as electrolyser manufacturing.
Peel Hunt Stays at Hold
Analyst house Peel Hunt reiterated its "Hold" rating on 8 October with a price target of 92.0 pence, citing industry-wide delays in large-scale hydrogen projects.
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That captures the sector's central challenge. The technology is available, and partnerships with traditional energy companies demonstrate genuine interest. Yet the industry remains dependent on slow permitting processes, unresolved regulatory details and high investment risks for offtakers.
What Monday's Results Must Show
Monday's preliminary annual figures will be scrutinised for evidence of a stable financial base while multi-billion-euro industrial projects are prepared. Clear proof of binding order momentum and strict cash management will matter more than headline guidance.
The narrowed loss range and the push for large-scale projects are steps in the right direction. But vague preliminary agreements with a horizon stretching to 2029 will not, on their own, justify the valuation. Whether today's heads of terms secure the revenues of the next decade depends on the binding contracts still to come.
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