Kioxia's AI Memory Ambitions Meet a Chinese Threat as Bernstein Lifts Target
Published on 10/01/2026 at 15:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Kioxia finds itself pulled in two directions at once. The AI-driven memory boom has handed the Japanese chipmaker powerful tailwinds, yet a fast-rising Chinese rival is testing how long those gains can last.
Micron Technology set the tone on Wednesday with fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, alongside a record $54.23 billion in revenue. The US company also signaled that the supply-demand balance for memory chips will stay tight and that sustained AI computing demand should pave the way for a record 2027. Reuters and Japanese media reported that investors responded with follow-on buying in Kioxia, pushing the stock up 3.9% to EUR 106.02 on Thursday. The shares now sit roughly 10% above their 50-day moving average of EUR 96.35.
A Silicon Valley Bet on Next-Generation Memory
Kioxia moved to strengthen its technological footing on Tuesday by joining Applied Materials' EPIC Center in Silicon Valley as an innovation partner. The two companies will jointly develop new memory cell and device structures, work on multichip stacking, and advance packaging techniques for semiconductors. The goal is to push memory density and performance further for AI workloads, giving Kioxia access to core manufacturing technologies for coming chip generations.
The partnership is a logical step. AI requirements demand memory solutions that go beyond conventional production limits, and simply expanding capacity is no longer enough to keep pace with industry heavyweights. Kioxia needs to anchor itself at the front of materials and process engineering, and teaming up with a leading equipment maker like Applied Materials could prove decisive in bringing the next generation of high-performance memory to market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Kioxia?
On the operational side, Kioxia released version 1.0.2 of its SSD firmware updater for Linux systems including Ubuntu and Fedora on Monday, underscoring its efforts to support existing hardware across a broad base.
Bernstein's Warning Cuts Both Ways
Bernstein made clear on Tuesday that the road ahead remains rocky. The analysts kept their "Underperform" rating on Kioxia but raised their price target from ¥40,000 to ¥49,000. Behind that seemingly contradictory adjustment lies a precise diagnosis: while Bernstein acknowledges an improved outlook for NAND flash pricing — which supports industry margins in the near term — it warns of a threat many market participants underestimate. Chinese competitor YMTC is gaining strength faster and more dangerously than the market generally expects.
That finding carries weight. Should YMTC succeed in closing the technology gap and flooding the market with cheap NAND products, prices in the standard segment would inevitably come under pressure. For Kioxia, the pricing upswing could remain fragile if Chinese suppliers aggressively capture market share.
October 30 Looms Large
Attention now turns to Kioxia's own numbers. Kioxia Holdings has scheduled its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results for October 30 at 18:45 JST. The figures will show how far the strong demand for memory solutions is flowing through to the company's revenue and margins, giving investors concrete insight into the current fiscal year's operating performance.
At the bourse, Kioxia trades at EUR 105.40 today, a daily gain of 3.3%, extending a remarkable run that has lifted the stock 455% since the start of the year. The company stands at an important crossroads. Tailwinds from the AI cycle and an anticipated tightening of memory supply favor the business, and the Applied Materials cooperation demonstrates its willingness to defend a technological leadership position. Yet the fundamental danger posed by YMTC calls for vigilance. As long as Kioxia can hold its edge in advanced structures, positive momentum should dominate. If the Chinese competitor gains a foothold in the premium segment, however, the margin profile faces stiff headwinds.
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