Leonardo's Lunar Pact and €1.7bn Warship Role Fail to Halt Market-Led Slide
Published on 10/07/2026 at 04:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Leonardo shares came under pressure on Tuesday, with the Italian defence and technology group's stock retreating in step with a softer broader market rather than on any company-specific setback. The Milan-listed equity finished the session down 2.8% at €46.90, a move that tracked the wider benchmark rather than reflecting fresh bad news from the group itself.
That decline extended a difficult stretch for the stock, which now sits roughly 30% below its 52-week high of €66.24 reached in mid-March. Tuesday's dip followed a separate 3.4% fall to €46.60 recorded earlier in the week, underscoring how macro sentiment has been dictating the share price even as the company rolls out operational announcements.
Moonlight ambitions take shape in Antalya
Among those announcements was a memorandum of understanding signed by Leonardo alongside its subsidiary Telespazio and the space exploration firm ispace. Inked at the 77th International Astronautical Congress in Antalya, Turkey, the agreement sets the stage for cooperation on infrastructure for future lunar missions, spanning communications, navigation, positioning, timing and transport services in the cislunar environment.
The tie-up deepens an existing relationship between ispace and Telespazio, a joint venture in which Leonardo holds 67% and Thales the remaining 33%. The first tangible test case is expected to be the European Space Agency's Moonlight initiative, a constellation of five satellites — four dedicated to navigation and one to communications, each weighing between 400 and 600 kilograms.
Moonlight is designed to roll out in two phases and promises positioning accuracy of up to three metres on the lunar surface. Initial services are targeted for late 2028, with full operations envisaged by 2030. Under the new accord, the partners will assess whether ispace's orbital transfer vehicle can ferry the Moonlight satellites moonward — though no transport contract has yet been awarded. Beyond logistics and networking, Leonardo is weighing the use of its own space robotics and artificial-intelligence solutions for lunar operations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Leonardo?
Bank of America trims target but keeps faith
Back on the ground, the valuation debate continues to hinge on how clearly investors can read the group's parts. Analyst David Holmes of Bank of America lowered his price target on 1 October to €71.00 from €79.50, while leaving his rating at "Buy." The revision stemmed from an updated sum-of-the-parts assessment.
The bank also flagged a persistent structural gripe: complex ownership structures and limited disclosure continue to make it hard for market participants to appreciate the full worth of Leonardo's various divisions. That opacity matters more when the wider market turns defensive and capital drains from companies with convoluted setups. Until the market can isolate and price individual business lines with confidence, investors tend to apply blanket risk discounts during volatile stretches.
Warship order book anchors the bull case
Offsetting those concerns is a defence business that keeps churning out reliable cash flow through major state programmes. On 24 September, the Orizzonte Sistemi Navali joint venture — 51% owned by Fincantieri and 49% by Leonardo — reported a significant contract win with the procurement agency OCCAR, worth approximately €3.7bn. The deal covers the construction of two DDX destroyers for the Italian Navy and carries options valued at around €1.3bn.
Leonardo's own slice of the programme is substantial: a planned subcontract of roughly €1.7bn, inclusive of options worth about €480m. Add to that the GCAP sensor contract signed roughly a month ago, even if the stock has shed 6.5% since. Together, these marine and defence awards underline Leonardo's firm footing in European armament initiatives, and combined with forward-looking ventures such as the lunar alliance, they underpin expectations that earnings power is secured for years to come.
Chart levels set the near-term agenda
What happens next may come down to technical markers. As long as the shares hold above the support zone near their yearly low of €43.53, the prospect of a technical rebound stays alive — a scenario in which the solid foundation from the DDX destroyer project and the GCAP programme could gradually outweigh broad market gloom. Should the wider equity backdrop deteriorate further and the stock break below those lows, the downtrend could gather pace.
The next real catalyst for a re-rating will be how management uses upcoming interim reports to shed more light on the profitability of its recent large contracts. Only when the company addresses worries about its complex structure with clearer disclosure are market participants likely to fully embrace the valuation headroom analysts still see. Whether the memorandum of understanding translates into firm, revenue-generating orders for Leonardo and Telespazio will depend on future awards under the European lunar programme.
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