Lufthansa's Winter Playbook: Gulf Routes Return, A340 Retires, and Fuel Costs Loom Over Guidance
Published on 10/07/2026 at 06:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Lufthansa is entering the autumn season with a packed agenda that spans network restoration, fleet modernization, and a fuel bill that keeps climbing. While management presses ahead with a long-term overhaul of how the group feeds its long-haul business, near-term earnings face mounting pressure from kerosene prices — a tension that analysts and investors are watching closely.
Dubai Flights Return as the A340 Bows Out
The carrier plans to gradually restore services to the United Arab Emirates, according to media reports. Munich–Dubai is set to resume on 25 October, with Frankfurt–Dubai following a day later on 26 October. Both routes are slated for up to five weekly frequencies.
The same period marks the end of an era for one of Lufthansa's most recognizable long-haul aircraft. The final commercial flight of the Airbus A340-600 is expected on 18 October, with the four-engine jet operating flight LH419 from Washington-Dulles to Frankfurt as its scheduled farewell.
Spohr's Structural Bet: Fewer Short-Haul Feeders, More Group Carriers
The retirement of older widebody jets fits into a broader strategic realignment. CEO Carsten Spohr has said the group intends to support its growing long-haul operations with less short-haul capacity, delegating feeder services increasingly to group carriers Lufthansa City Airlines and Discover Airlines in a bid to streamline cost structures.
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Swiss Pilot Unrest Adds to the Pressure
Labour tensions are simmering at subsidiary Swiss, where more than 1,000 members of the Aeropers pilots' association signed a protest letter to the airline's management. The dispute centres on a new collective labour agreement, with negotiations between the company and employee representatives having been under way since April, according to Aeropers.
Bernstein Stays Cautious as Fuel Headwinds Build
On the cost side, Bernstein Research maintained its "Market-Perform" rating on the stock with a price target of 9 euros. Analyst Alex Irving expects mixed third-quarter results from European airlines and sees higher kerosene prices as a tangible drag on profits next year.
That view aligns with recent comments from the executive suite. Spohr said on 29 September, according to Reuters, that the additional fuel burden this year would likely exceed the previously budgeted 1.5 billion euros, though he did not provide a new figure. He also stressed that the airline can meet the profit guidance it lowered over the summer.
Fleet Expansion and Route Rights Secured
Despite the cost squeeze, the group continues to modernize its fleet. On 17 September, Lufthansa Group exercised existing options for 20 additional Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft.
The company also reported its shareholder structure as of the end of September on 1 October. At 67.1 percent, the majority of shares are held in German hands, followed by US investors. Further stakes are held in Luxembourg, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. Lufthansa emphasized that this ownership mix fulfils all prerequisites for maintaining its aviation licences and route rights.
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Looking Ahead: Q3 Report and Japan Expansion
Investors will get hard numbers in a few weeks. Lufthansa publishes its third interim report for the first nine months of the year on 3 November — a date that will reveal the extent to which fuel prices actually eroded profitability during the summer season.
Further out, the company is preparing for future growth. From the end of March 2027, Lufthansa plans to resume seasonal and daily flights to Japan, lifting the group's offering there to as many as 50 weekly connections.
Market Snapshot
The stock closed at 7.59 euros on Tuesday, down 9.8 percent since the start of the year. It trades 26 percent below its 52-week high of 10.27 euros.
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