Mercedes-Benz Bets on Paris Debuts to Break a 34% Slide
Published on 10/01/2026 at 21:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz is lining up a barrage of show premieres for the Paris auto show running October 12–18, a showcase the Stuttgart carmaker hopes will shift attention away from a share price that has been stuck near the bottom of its range. The new GLA, the Mercedes-AMG CLA 45, a refreshed GLE, the Mercedes-AMG GT 4-Door Coupe and the electric VLE are all set for the spotlight.
The timing could hardly be more delicate. At EUR 40.02, the stock is trading just 0.6% above its 52-week low and has shed 34% since the start of the year, with Tuesday alone bringing a 1.3% decline. That weakness frames the central debate among investors: whether a renewed model lineup can offset deep structural problems in global demand, above all in Asia.
Deutsche Bank Trims Target, Keeps the Faith
Deutsche Bank Research analyst Tim Rokossa cut his price target to EUR 70 from EUR 73 on Tuesday, while leaving the shares on a Buy rating — a signal that the bank still sees meaningful upside from current levels. Rokossa pointed to persistent industry headwinds and labeled China a structural issue rather than a cyclical dip.
The bull case rests on an orderly rollout of the model cycle and a resilience that Bernstein Research's Stephen Reitman believes the market is underestimating. In a September 23 note, Reitman rated the stock Market-Perform with a EUR 56 target, arguing that Mercedes-Benz is holding its ground against Chinese rivals better than many market participants assume. If the Paris debuts reinforce that advantage, sentiment could brighten by degrees.
Cost Cuts Take Center Stage at Home
While the product offensive unfolds, the company is reworking its cost base in Germany. Mercedes-Benz has said production at home is no longer internationally competitive, largely because of high labor costs, and one manager has already warned employees that two plants are at risk. Reuters reported Tuesday that the automaker intends to largely scrap home-office working as part of the dispute over personnel costs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Mercedes-Benz?
Media reports have put potential savings on labor costs at up to EUR 800 million, with measures such as unpaid overtime and cuts to special payments under discussion. The company has not confirmed that figure and says talks with employee representatives are ongoing. A voluntary severance program for German staff is set to launch in December, offered on a double-voluntary basis to employees covered by collective agreements and to parts of the indirect management team.
Buyback and BlackRock Stake in Focus
Management is also leaning on capital measures to counter the share price slump. Under a buyback program launched roughly a month ago — covering up to 58 million shares for a maximum of EUR 1 billion — the group repurchased another 895,000 of its own shares in the week of September 21–25. That lifted the total acquired so far to just under three million shares. On the investor side, asset manager BlackRock reported a total voting rights stake of 6.04% on September 25.
Broader strengths beyond passenger cars add some ballast. Mercedes-Benz Vans has expanded its VanSolution partner program to 33 partners across several European countries, and the electric GLC was named German premium car of the year.
Sindelfingen Stoppage Exposes Supply Chain Risk
Against that optimism sits a less comfortable reality. A shortage of certain components forced the cancellation of a shift at the Sindelfingen plant on September 25, with production in Factory 56 temporarily adjusted. Should such bottlenecks recur, deliveries of key models could slip — and any further margin pressure would risk being compounded by operational friction, potentially overshadowing the cost-cutting drive planned for December.
The production of the new GLA, meanwhile, has already begun at the Rastatt plant, where electric variants and 48V hybrids are assembled flexibly on a shared line. Whether that manufacturing agility is enough to fully blunt headwinds in the premium segment is the valuation question that will define the coming months.
What to Watch Next
For investors, the choice is whether the current valuation already prices in every risk or whether another leg down is coming. As long as the recent interim low just below EUR 40 holds, there is room for the quote to stabilize; a sustained break below that level could intensify selling pressure for lack of technical support.
The Paris auto show is the next concrete catalyst, with the reception from industry experts and customers to the GLA, CLA 45, GLE and electric VLE set to reveal how durable the product pipeline is for the coming fiscal year. Shortly afterward, attention turns to how smoothly the December severance program gets off the ground — and to October 28, when Mercedes-Benz Group publishes its interim report for the third quarter of 2026. The accompanying conference call should clarify just how deeply current burdens have dented group operating profit.
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