Mercedes-Benz Dodges Washington's China Crosshairs as Buyback Engine Idles Toward October Test
Published on 10/01/2026 at 15:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz has slipped out of the line of fire in Washington just as its shares plumb fresh depths at home. A Senate bill aimed at automakers with substantial Chinese ownership will explicitly exempt the Stuttgart manufacturer, according to CNBC, removing a regulatory overhang that could have crippled one of its most profitable markets.
Senator Bernie Moreno, the bill's sponsor, confirmed on Tuesday that Mercedes-Benz would not be caught by the proposed sanctions. The draft targets manufacturers in which Chinese owners hold more than 15 percent of shares — a threshold the German group technically breaches, with passive Chinese stakes currently around 20 percent. Talks over the final shape of the legislation are still ongoing, but the clear signal from Washington eases pressure on a company that can ill afford disruption in the US, where deliveries climbed 13 percent in the second quarter.
A Fresh Low on the Frankfurt Floor
The reprieve from overseas arrived against a grim domestic backdrop. Mercedes-Benz stock touched a new 52-week low of EUR 40.12 on Tuesday before closing at EUR 40.53, leaving the DAX heavyweight down 33 percent since the start of the year. The shares have now surrendered a third of their value in under ten months.
That slide reflects a business squeezed from multiple directions. Group deliveries fell six percent in the second quarter to 511,900 passenger cars and vans, as gains of four percent in Europe and 13 percent in North America failed to plug the hole left by China. In that single market, second-quarter sales collapsed by 30 percent. The passenger-car adjusted return on sales — the metric analysts now fixate on — thinned to just four percent.
The earnings picture darkened accordingly. Group profit halved to EUR 5.3 billion in 2025 from EUR 10.4 billion a year earlier. Yet the second quarter of 2026 offered a counterweight: group earnings rose 13.5 percent to roughly EUR 1.09 billion, suggesting the core business outside China can still generate solid returns.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Mercedes-Benz?
Buybacks and Buyouts as Twin Levers
Management is pulling two levers at once. On the capital side, the company repurchased 895,000 shares in the trading week of September 21–25 alone, bringing the total retired since the program began in early September to just under three million. On the cost side, a fresh voluntary severance scheme will launch in Germany in December 2026, targeting indirect functions such as administration, IT and development. For the first time, senior executives will be eligible. Direct roles in vehicle production remain excluded, and any exit still requires mutual consent, since an existing employment-security agreement bars compulsory redundancies through the end of 2034.
The template has already produced results. An earlier buyout round running from April 2025 to March 2026 saw roughly 5,500 employees leave. If the new program draws similar interest, personnel costs in indirect functions should shrink quickly. The board is aiming for annual savings of around EUR 5 billion from 2027.
Office Mandate Meets Union Resistance
Alongside the severance drive, Mercedes-Benz plans to tighten office attendance for its roughly 108,000 German employees. A draft group works agreement would require full-time staff to be on site up to four days a week by default. Should the works council bodies approve it, the arrangement would take effect on January 1, 2027, and managers could set that quota without providing justification.
Labor representatives are pushing back hard. Michael Peters, the works council chief in Bremen, has publicly criticized what he calls a lack of trust, and the group works council opposes the four-day presence rule. A proposed extension toward a 38-hour week has added further friction. Should positions harden, protracted arbitration could stall the reform agenda.
Production chief Michael Schiebe has warned, with qualifications, that without sustained cost reductions the closure of two German plants could become a possibility — a scenario that would poison the industrial climate and inject fresh uncertainty.
Deutsche Bank Trims, BlackRock Adds
Analysts are recalibrating. Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target on Tuesday to EUR 70 from EUR 73 while keeping its buy rating. Analyst Tim Rokossa noted that the upcoming reporting period is unlikely to shift the prevailing sector narrative. On the shareholder register, BlackRock nudged its total voting rights position up to 6.02 percent, according to mandatory disclosures.
Mercedes-Benz at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The technical picture now hinges on the EUR 40.12 intraday low. Holding that floor leaves room for a technical rebound and a fundamental base at a discounted level. A sustained break below it would risk extending the correction, as the market prices in a deepening crisis in China.
October 28 Sets the Next Marker
Concrete clarity arrives in a matter of weeks. On October 28, 2026, Mercedes-Benz reports third-quarter figures and hosts its analyst call. That interim statement is the next hard catalyst — the moment investors learn whether the China slump has deepened further and what additional detail management provides on the December start of the severance program.
If the Chinese market stabilizes through the rest of the year while US demand holds, the combination of strict cost discipline and a shrinking share count could set the stage for a revaluation of the DAX group. If not, the savings from the buyouts may dissipate before the targeted EUR 5 billion takes full effect from 2027.
Ad
Mercedes-Benz Stock: New Analysis - 1 October
Fresh Mercedes-Benz information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
