Mercedes-Benz EV Order Books Stretch Into 2027 as China Slump Tests Investor Nerve
Published on 10/11/2026 at 15:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz heads toward its third-quarter earnings release with a split-screen story: a battery-electric lineup that cannot be built fast enough for European buyers, and a Chinese market that keeps eroding the group's overall volume.
Ahead of the detailed figures due on October 28, 2026, the Stuttgart automaker finds itself in the customary quiet period before reporting. The stock ended Friday's session up 1.3% at EUR 39.73, a modest rebound that leaves the shares hovering just above the 52-week low of EUR 38.90 touched during Thursday trading.
A Tale of Two Markets
Third-quarter delivery data laid bare the divergence. Group-wide sales of passenger cars and vans fell 6% year-on-year to 491,700 units, dragged down by China, where passenger-car volumes collapsed 31% compared with the same period a year earlier.
The electric side of the business told a different story. Deliveries of fully electric passenger cars jumped 61% from a year ago, setting a quarterly record for the company. Demand in Europe has been strong enough that electric versions of the CLA, GLC, GLB and GLA are sold out for the remainder of 2026, with order books extending well into 2027.
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Analysts Pare Back Expectations
That order-book strength has done little to calm nerves about profitability in the core car business. Concerns over the automotive division's margin performance prompted a wave of target-price revisions on Friday.
Exane BNP downgraded the stock to "Underperform" with a price target of EUR 38.60. UBS trimmed its target to EUR 45 from EUR 50 while keeping a "Neutral" rating, pointing to unrelenting competitive pressure in China as the central concern. HSBC also lowered its target, to EUR 61, but maintained its buy recommendation on the DAX-listed shares.
The worry is straightforward: sustained price competition and heavy discounting could take a meaningful bite out of operating margins in the passenger-car segment this year. While Mercedes-Benz has posted gains in all-electric drivetrains, soft customer demand in China is weighing on the overall result, with local rivals pushing into the market behind aggressive pricing and forcing established European manufacturers onto the back foot.
Buybacks and Product Offensive as Offsets
Management is countering with a mix of capital returns and technology rollouts. Under its ongoing share buyback program, Mercedes-Benz Group AG repurchased 875,000 of its own shares between September 28 and October 2, 2026, at a total volume of just over EUR 35.6 million.
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On the product side, the company is phasing in new equipment features, including a steer-by-wire steering system recently approved for the EQS model. Mercedes-Benz is also marking the anniversary of its S-Class with public events at the museum in Stuttgart.
What Comes Next
For now, caution dominates trading. Until October 28, when the company publishes its full interim report and hosts its regular analyst conference, speculation about the scale of the drag from the China business is likely to drive the share price. That date will also deliver the first hard read on the third quarter's actual operating margin and on whether the group's full-year targets remain within reach.
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